MarketChess

27Aug2:45 pmEST

Twenty-Five Years Ago to the Month

With NVIDIA earnings this evening it is worth revisiting a parallel we have previously drawn both here and with Members: The magnificent bubble and collapse of Cisco during the dot-com mania. CSCO still has not recaptured its prior highs from mid-2000, as seen on the quarterly chart, below. If you traded back then, you know that CSCO, with...

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26Aug2:16 pmEST

The Hangover Effect

It has been a wild late-August for Target after a summer-long rally abruptly ended on news of its CEO stepping down alongside a recent earning selloff. Overall, shares of TGT topped out back in late-2021 and remain well below those $268.98 highs, with the stock now trading in double digits as I write this.  For our purposes, however, the...

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25Aug3:04 pmEST

Summertime Blues

NVDA is up about 2% into the final hour of trading, headed into Wednesday evening's earnings which is, no doubt, the last remaining major firm to report this summer. Of course, we also have GDP and PCE data points later in the week, both of which could easily shift expectations for a September rate cut. In addition, President Trump is as active...

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22Aug3:10 pmEST

Afternoon Update 08/22/25 {Video}

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20Aug1:25 pmEST

I Respect the Strategy

News of Pepsi raising prices by 10% on their carbonated soft drinks in a few weeks hit the wires today. In addition, I saw a report that Monster Energy  (of which Coca Cola owns a piece) plans to raise prices on its U.S. energy drinks.  These price increases during an entrenched period of inflation should come as no surprise to anyone....

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19Aug3:08 pmEST

Rethinking Old Battle Lines

Today seems like the first day in forever that we are seeing coordinated heavy selling at the epicenter of the bubble in AI/growth/tech. High-flying names likes PLTR HOOD, chips like AMD MRVL, as well as monsters like NVDA are all being sold fairly aggressively into the final hour.  Naturally, one session does not a new downtrend make,...

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18Aug1:28 pmEST

Time to Be Open-Minded About Solar

After several years of price action which can only be described as putrid we now have some domestic solars like First Solar and Sunrun bearing an uncanny resemblance to the TAN sector ETF daily chart, seen below. In all cases we have price recently consolidating back above the 200-day moving average (yellow line) and then pushing higher...

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15Aug3:16 pmEST

Afternoon Update 08/15/25 {Video}

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14Aug3:22 pmEST

If You Don't Like the Temperature, Just Change the Thermometer

Even with one of the hottest PPI prints I can recall in years earlier this morning, the CME FedWatch odds for rate cuts at the next FOMC (and each subsequent one into early-2026) are still well over 90%. Now, The Fed may opt for a 25 bps cut in lieu of 50 bps given the hot print.  But unless Jerome Powell can summons the fortitude to shun both...

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13Aug3:29 pmEST

Prepare for the New Era of Tinkering

It is well documented that during times of entrenched inflation, like in the 1970s, we see folks "stretching out" every last ounce they can get from their household durables (also known as durable goods, items designed for long-term use within a household, typically lasting for three years or more).  In other words, spending the money to...

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