MarketChess

21Mar2:37 pmEST

Metals and the Bond Market Can Stop This March Madness

Sure, we can discuss oil. But from my perch the bond market, shooting rates higher, and the precious metals with their derivative miners, are the two main forces which can push back on The Fed's likely mistake of focusing on rate cuts and ignoring the possibility of inflation igniting for another wave higher.  On the junior silver miner ETF...

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20Mar3:31 pmEST

Jerome Powell Starring as Backdraft Ronald

"What would you like to do to the currency and confidence in inflation, Jerome?"  Burn it Gold, silver, copper, and the miners saw a surge as Powell opened his presser with incredibly dovish comments  even though some of the Fed voting members dot plots initially seemed a touch more hawkish than expected.  On the silver ETF monthly chart,...

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19Mar12:50 pmEST

The Two Most Generous Bartenders in History

If nothing else, Jerome Powell and Janet Yellen may very well wind up going down in history as the two most generous bartenders, proving ample liquidity to markets at each and every juncture for a period of years.  You may be thinking that the current rally in equities, with the broad market refusing to pull back even 2% for nearly one hundred...

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18Mar12:28 pmEST

How Could it Be OK if it is Askew?

An historically low "SKEW," seen below, typically correlates with a calm equities market, where market players are far more concerned about capturing upside reward than worried about downside risks. And that is what we have taking place here, albeit to an extreme.  Interestingly, alongside the rally in Japanese stocks overnight, this is...

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17Mar10:52 amEST

Weekend Overview and Analysis 03/17/24 {Video}

The following video is a brief, condensed version of the full-length Weekend Video Strategy Session which I present each weekend to members of Market Chess Subscription Services. In the longer version, I offer tons of actionable trade ideas, educational content, and in-depth objective analysis across all markets.  Please click here  for more...

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15Mar12:49 pmEST

Here's Why Boeing Means Higher Gasoline Prices 03/15/24 {Video}

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14Mar10:58 amEST

Two Charts Which Make Sense Amid the Quagmire

Even with the semiconductors soundly red this morning we have seen buyers generally out and about, not sweating the stagflationary PPI and retail sales prints this morning too much. Microsoft is higher by more than 2.5% which, at its $3.1 trillion market cap size, will keep the overall index selling tame unless it reverses.  However, the small...

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13Mar12:06 pmEST

Finally Feels Like the 1970s Again

The last time we saw a prolonged period of entrenched inflation in this country was during the 1970s. During that period, gold and oil stocks were the two top performers, all the while the "Nifty Fifty" high-flying growth stocks of that era finally saw their collective bubble pop. Indeed, the "stagflation" period of slowing growth and sticky...

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12Mar1:09 pmEST

Some Can Spot It

I remain perplexed by the Nasdaq's ability to laugh off a hot CPI print this morning (and just about anything else for that matter), even as rates rise. However, many other parts of the market can spot the issues caused by higher rates going forward, be it the small caps, transports, biotechs, and the REITs (below on the IYR ETF daily chart)...

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11Mar12:26 pmEST

Very Well. I Accept Your Blackmail

It almost seems as though bulls are attempting to, in a way, blackmail this market. The much ballyhooed extended leaders in the "Magnificent 7," alongside semiconductors at-large, have obviously been the focal point of the melt-up. Bulls argue that looming rate cuts this year amid a soft landing justifies all of it--and the AI revolution...

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