Weekend Overview and Analysis 03/03/24 {Video}

13Mar12:06 pmEST

Finally Feels Like the 1970s Again

The last time we saw a prolonged period of entrenched inflation in this country was during the 1970s. During that period, gold and oil stocks were the two top performers, all the while the "Nifty Fifty" high-flying growth stocks of that era finally saw their collective bubble pop. Indeed, the "stagflation" period of slowing growth and sticky...

12Mar1:09 pmEST

Some Can Spot It

I remain perplexed by the Nasdaq's ability to laugh off a hot CPI print this morning (and just about anything else for that matter), even as rates rise. However, many other parts of the market can spot the issues caused by higher rates going forward, be it the small caps, transports, biotechs, and the REITs (below on the IYR ETF daily chart)...

11Mar12:26 pmEST

Very Well. I Accept Your Blackmail

It almost seems as though bulls are attempting to, in a way, blackmail this market. The much ballyhooed extended leaders in the "Magnificent 7," alongside semiconductors at-large, have obviously been the focal point of the melt-up. Bulls argue that looming rate cuts this year amid a soft landing justifies all of it--and the AI revolution...

10Mar9:43 amEST

Weekend Overview and Analysis 03/10/24 {Video}

The following video is a brief, condensed version of the full-length Weekend Video Strategy Session which I present each weekend to members of Market Chess Subscription Services. In the longer version, I offer tons of actionable trade ideas, educational content, and in-depth objective analysis across all markets. Please click here for more...

08Mar1:51 pmEST

Reversal of Fortune

In last evening's full recap video for Members we discussed the idea that most State of the Union Addresses do not move markets very much, if at all. In fact, it is often something of a red herrings for trading to try to trade off it, despite all of the coverage and analysis surrounding the event. However, the jobs report this morning was a...

07Mar12:51 pmEST

Reminiscent of a Certain Time and Place

As NVDA and the semiconductors continue to blow-off (headed into AVGO earnings tonight), I cannot help but recall this same early-March period in 2009. Of course, back then instead of going up every day we had the market going down nonstop. There were many bold calls for the S&P eventually go down to 400, some even calling for 200 and 100 with...

06Mar11:19 amEST

A Profile in Cowardice

It is fascinating to see that, despite the plethora of seemingly hawkish comments by Chair Powell this morning in front of Congress, Bloomberg ran a YouTube clip soundbite with the title, "Fed Chair Powell: Likely Appropriate to Cut Rates This Year." Even though Powell's "likely appropriate" comment on rate cuts came before and after a...

05Mar12:29 pmEST

Bring on the Passive Aggressive Types

The main reason why textbook bearish head and shoulders topping patterns tend to work so well at ushering in new bear markets and are quite obvious (in hindsight!) is, ironically, that they have failed numerous times on the way up during the bull run. And in this liquidity-driven bonanza since 2009 and especially since the pandemic that...

04Mar11:14 amEST

More Dignified Action

Amid plenty of other issues in markets and the world, it is quite easy to overlook the recent strength in natural gas after a prolonged period where natty bulls displayed unrivaled ineptitude. On the UNG ETF daily chart, updated below, the gap up today is a sizable one. And over the last few weeks we have seen some tangible evidence of at...

03Mar8:34 amEST

Weekend Overview and Analysis 03/03/24 {Video}

The following video is a brief, condensed version of the full-length Weekend Video Strategy Session which I present each weekend to members of Market Chess Subscription Services. In the longer version, I offer tons of actionable trade ideas, educational content, and in-depth objective analysis across all markets. Please click here for more...