Don't Let the Door Hit You on the Way Out, Q1

12Apr11:46 amEST

New Buyers Late to the Station

While the CPI came in cooler than both I and the market expected, leading to an initial pre-market futures rally, semiconductors led a reversal lower off the open which is largely sticking as I write this. It is often said that markets which fails to hold rallies off "good news" are increasingly bearish, which means whether we get a recover or...

11Apr11:36 amEST

Find Where the Bodies Are Buried

With a whopping forward PE for 145, Snowflake is melting this morning in an otherwise mixed tape in front of tomorrow morning's CPI inflation print. However, SNOW is part of the suddenly lagging software sector, including CRM MSFT notable Dow laggards in the early going. Bulls will argue this is merely prof-taking after a strong run for MSFT,...

10Apr11:22 amEST

Still Looking for a Bear Trap in Rates

Color me firmly in the contrarian camp regarding two views which have increasingly become mainstream. The first being the death of the Dollar, or "de-Dollarization." The second being that rates have peaked and The Fed is more or less done hiking as inflation collapses. I am on the other side of both of those views. First and foremost, while I...

09Apr8:58 amEST

Weekend Overview and Analysis 04/09/23 {Video}

The following video is a brief, condensed version of the full-length Weekend Video Strategy Session which I present each weekend to members of Market Chess Subscription Services. In the longer version, I offer tons of actionable trade ideas, educational content, and in-depth objective analysis across all markets. Please click here for more...

06Apr2:42 pmEST

How About That Natty Gas?

Enjoy your long holiday weekend!

05Apr11:41 amEST

The ARKK is Taking on Water

I am still short ARKK via a long SARK play. And as you can see below on the updated daily chart Cathie Wood's growth stock buffet is at risk of support trend and the key $38 level. Given the Nasdaq rally in Q1, the ARKK weakness is all the more concerning to the bull case. Going forward, I continue to look for another meaningful leg down in...

04Apr9:26 amEST

No Rate Cuts Without Calamity

After the spike up in crude oil so far this week, let us also remember that winter is behind us and summer driving season ahead. UGA, the ETF for gasoline futures, has been quietly flagging on the monthly timeframe, seen below. If this flag uncoils higher say, above $70, as we see gas prices rise nationwide I have a hard time seeing even this...

03Apr10:51 amEST

Oil Up, Tesla Down; New Quarter of Attack

"Get up. Dust off. Reload. Re-calibrate. Re-engage – And go out on the attack.” – Jocko Willink Just in time for the new month and quarter (funny how that works), OPEC+ meaningfully slashes oil output to send crude prices higher. Oil services names like RIG, which started off 2023 red hot before cooling off amid the tech rally, are back at it...

02Apr10:07 amEST

Weekend Overview and Analysis 04/02/23 {Video}

The following video is a brief, condensed version of the full-length Weekend Video Strategy Session which I present each weekend to members of Market Chess Subscription Services. In the longer version, I offer tons of actionable trade ideas, educational content, and in-depth objective analysis across all markets. Please click here for more...

31Mar11:44 amEST

Don't Let the Door Hit You on the Way Out, Q1

I, for one, am thrilled at the prospect of the calendar flipping to April and the second quarter of trading kicking off next week. Q1 for 2023 featured, after an initial squeeze to kick off the new year, endless head-fakes, whipsaws, range probing and the like. Headed into this year with Members, my view was that January into even mid-February...