Hot is Cold; Cold is Hot

13Feb10:41 amEST

Officially Time for a New Decade

Although we are a few years into the current decade it seems like a new regime change continues to develop even though many deny its staying power. Specifically, for all but the highest net worth people in America it is highly likely that folks with money invested in markets will face tough decisions ("first world problems," as they say) as to...

12Feb9:25 amEST

Weekend Overview and Analysis 02/12/23 {Video}

The following video is a brief, condensed version of the full-length Weekend Video Strategy Session which I present each weekend to members of Market Chess Subscription Services. In the longer version, I offer tons of actionable trade ideas, educational content, and in-depth objective analysis across all markets. Please click here for more...

10Feb12:20 pmEST

The Ol' Head-Fake Jump

While bulls argue the last few days of weakness is yet another buyable dip and a benign consolidation after the one-way rally since 2023 began, when we examine, for example, the ARKK daily chart (below), there are more concerning items in play. First and foremost, Cathie Wood's growth stock fund is still sporting a declining 200-day moving...

09Feb3:32 pmEST

The Chart di Tutti i Charts

Are you sure rates have topped out? No, I mean, like, really, really, sure? Because if not, and you probably know I believe they will go much higher, many of the assumptions built into this risk-on rally in early-2023 can reverse rather ruthlessly. On the weekly chart for TNX, which is the Index for rates on the 10-Year Note (the big round...

09Feb10:14 amEST

Modern Battle Cry

"I do not know with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones." - Albert Einstein. Let's face it: The nuclear threat overrides plenty of factors when considering the next all-out World War threat, which is why we have seen variations of it on smaller scales ever since the end of WWII....

08Feb10:55 amEST

I'll See Yous in the Funny Papers

Plenty of talk about Microsoft and Google competing for search now, which I expect to stay in the "papers" and headlines for the foreseeable future. For our purposes, though, nothing has changed. Both stocks are in bear market trends, as the weekly for Alphabet, below, illustrates since late-2021. Note the failure today at prior early-2021...

07Feb10:46 amEST

Low Winter Sun Staring at You, Jay Powell

The Fed Chair will be speaking around 12:40pm EST today. And while it may very well be a formality of a speech before an economic council in D.C. you may have noticed the rhetoric shift in recent days from Fed people in light of last Friday's hot jobs number. Stocks are mixed in front of his speech, with the likes of BBBY giving back a heavy...

06Feb10:16 amEST

This is a Front-Runaround Sue Market

Just as markets began to front-run what they perceived as a peak in inflation and a new era of disinflation (as Jay Powell himself basically said last week) since the swing lows back in October 2022, then began to aggressively celebrate a possible soft landing in recent weeks on top of that, if there are second thoughts about that now we could...

05Feb10:00 amEST

Weekend Overview and Analysis 02/05/23 {Video}

The following video is a brief, condensed version of the full-length Weekend Video Strategy Session which I present each weekend to members of Market Chess Subscription Services. In the longer version, I offer tons of actionable trade ideas, educational content, and in-depth objective analysis across all markets. Please click here for more...

03Feb10:05 amEST

Hot is Cold; Cold is Hot

This morning's red hot jobs report is likely the start of a series of data which I expect to force The Fed to rethink its recent softening hawkish stance. The CPI on February 14th figures to be the next prime-time report, as market players decide if good news is bad for markets due to pressure on The Fed and bad news is good as it would give...