Weekend Overview and Analysis 06/18/23 {Video}

29Jun10:43 amEST

Higher for Longer Until "Something" Breaks

With stronger than expected GDP, uniform passing of stress tests by banks, and weekly jobless claims posting the biggest drop in twenty months, bulls seem to be in the "have our cake and eat it, too" mindset. However, in economics there is always a price to be paid. Here, rates must go higher, even as Powell and his band of merry printers at...

28Jun1:04 pmEST

It All Comes Down to Apple, Buffett

How is this for drama? With CNBC on an "Apple $3 trillion market cap alert," the stock is trading at roughy thirty times forward earnings (and a PEG of 4) and has been a one-way melt-up machine in 2023. The AAPL monthly chart, below, shows one of the most glaring bearish RSI divergences to price (bottom pane) you will ever see for a stock this...

27Jun11:12 amEST

It's Pretty; It's So Pretty

Consider this another friendly reminder of an attractive pattern in a critical asset class, with few eyes on said pattern. The updated monthly chart (below) for TNX, the Index for Rates on the 10-year ("40" equates to 4% on this Index, for example) shows us a beautiful multi-month bull flag which continues to fly well under-the-radar of folks...

26Jun11:24 amEST

Holy Meta Gap Man, Zuck

After getting absolutely throttled in 2022, Meta (formerly Facebook) has staged one of the more epic one way melt-ups in recent memory for a stock its size coming off a thrashing. On the updated META daily chart below, two things seem noteworthy: 1) The steepness of the uptrend for prolonged period of time for, again, such a mega cap name, and...

25Jun10:02 amEST

Weekend Overview and Analysis 06/25/23 {Video}

The following video is a brief, condensed version of the full-length Weekend Video Strategy Session which I present each weekend to members of Market Chess Subscription Services. In the longer version, I offer tons of actionable trade ideas, educational content, and in-depth objective analysis across all markets. Please click here for more...

23Jun12:22 pmEST

Crypto Bros Strike Back!

Bitcoin and several crypto-related stocks are the clear winners today amid a soft tape, as hot money seeks to rotate to keep the party going in risk assets while many tech/growth names cool off. Even most bulls admit that some of the melt-up names of late, like Carvana (below on the daily chart, updated), need to digest recent gains. However,...

22Jun12:24 pmEST

Unsinkable Rates

You may have noticed that Jerome Powell is out talking like a tough guy this week in front of Congress. Naturally, he is doing so after failing to raise rates last week and essentially backstopping wealthy depositors for regional banks back in March, essentially eliminating a fat left tail risk to markets for the time being which, in turn,...

21Jun11:30 amEST

The Last Gasp of Complacency

If you traded during the summer of 2011 then you know there was a moment right before all heck broke loose and we had a bonfire market swoon for a while there that stocks went down and so too did the VIX. Up until that point, we had a narrow market with capital congregated in a few obvious names but many weak sectors overall (sound familiar?)....

20Jun11:25 amEST

Looking for Changes

Alongside speculative fervor in meme stocks as well as mega cap tech like NVDA TSLA, we also have CNN Fear & Greed Index in "Extreme Greed" territory with very few folks even acknowledging that indicator at this point. Furthermore, we have U.S. housing starts, or new home construction, surging by the most in three decades in May as it was...

18Jun4:49 pmEST

Weekend Overview and Analysis 06/18/23 {Video}

The following video is a brief, condensed version of the full-length Weekend Video Strategy Session which I present each weekend to members of Market Chess Subscription Services. In the longer version, I offer tons of actionable trade ideas, educational content, and in-depth objective analysis across all markets. Please click here for more...