MarketChess

04Sep1:23 pmEST

Then You've Already Lost

"If you must resort to violence, then you've already lost." -John Connor (Sean Connery), Rising Sun (1993).  Don't look now, but the Japanese Yen currency is strengthening again.  As we saw (briefly) in early-August, when the Yen moves higher it pressures the much-ballyhooed "Yen carry trade," where speculators have cheaply borrowed the...

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03Sep11:44 amEST

Back to School Equals Back to Basics

As opposed to the rest of the country, here in the northeast the Labor Day holiday, as much as anything else, is synonymous with K-12 schools kicking off the new year.  And with that new school year of education one has to wonder if the market, itself, will get back to basics.  Specifically, bearish chart patterns have mostly become so...

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30Aug1:15 pmEST

The Ultimate Standoff

With such historically aggressively interventionist monetary and fiscal policies since the global financial crisis--and even more since the pandemic--one ought not be surprised (even though many are, clutching pearls firmly in hand) that the overarching theme in markets and the economy is bifurcation. The financial news media has referred to it...

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29Aug2:42 pmEST

Surviving the Game

An afternoon fade is seeing the Nasdaq turn red as I write this, with the 17,780 level we noted here and with Members on the Nasdaq Composite Index asserting itself as firm resistance today.  NVDA is currently down 6%, GOOGL is a dud again, yet bulls were as cocky as I can recall earlier today on the prospect of an unstoppable freight train of...

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28Aug1:00 pmEST

But She's Been Gone Since That Summer

"New Kids On The Block had a bunch of hits Chinese food makes me sick And I think it's fly when girls stop by For the summer, for the summer I like girls that wear Abercrombie & Fitch I'd take her if I had one wish But she's been gone since that summer Since that summer." Summer Girls, by LFO It would be quite easy, indeed,...

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27Aug2:10 pmEST

What if Inflation is Bottoming, Not Topping?

Even though I have been out of my bond short since July I remain focused on the long-term inflationary dynamics still very much in play. The rate of inflation has slowed but that differs greatly than us experiencing deflation (Just go to the grocery store, pay your healthcare bill, various insurance costs, etc., for reference).  That said, what...

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26Aug11:57 amEST

Predators and Prey

The chart, below, has been making the rounds on social media of late. I saw Don Johnson (@DonMiami3), an economist, tweet it out previously.  As you can see, retail investors were galvanized by the selloff at the beginning of the month and, instead of feeling fear or panic, saw dollar signs instead and bought stocks hand over fist. While that...

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23Aug3:12 pmEST

Afternoon Update 08/23/24 {Video}

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22Aug3:34 pmEST

I'm Sorry Ms. Jackson Hole, The Jobs Numbers Are Not for Real

The front-running of major events has been one of the hallmarks of this market for a while now, with inside information rumored to be circulating to the well-connected in a timely manner. The simple fact is that we will probably never know for sure whether that is the case. And, frankly, that is life on Wall Street and has been for over a...

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21Aug2:52 pmEST

The Longest Game

Even with a firm VIX and strong Yen today, stocks are a bit higher today as I write this on the back of both massive BLS job revisions lower plus dovish Fed Minutes, both of which would seem to give The Fed ample cover to cut rates in September.  However, those traders who either traded through or studied initial rate cuts, like 2007, know that...

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