Yes, the Bond Market Can Crash

13Sep10:24 amEST

Ole, Ole, Ole-Ole!

Inflation is still feeling hot, hot, hot! To be serious, we have a situation on our hands which history suggests is quite dangerous. The disconnect in the bond market between smart, seasoned traders who believe rates are either about to plunge and/or simply "cannot" go much higher from here is likely a function of the forty year bull market...

12Sep11:31 amEST

Cheers to a Sucker Rally

If you have followed work for more than a decade then you probably know that oftentimes I am of the mindset to grind through all types of markets, staying flexible. As Paul Tudor Jones once said, "At the end of the day, I am a slave to the tape and proud of it." While I certainly am not looking to eschew risk management I also happen to have...

11Sep8:38 amEST

Weekend Overview and Analysis 09/11/22 {Video}

The following video is a brief, condensed version of the full-length Weekend Video Strategy Session which I present each weekend to members of Market Chess Subscription Services. In the longer version, I offer tons of actionable trade ideas, educational content, and in-depth objective analysis across all markets. Please click here for more...

09Sep11:21 amEST

It's Never Easy, Baby

On the back of some badly beaten-down growth software plays enjoying sharp earnings bounces this namely, DOCU and ZS just last evening, bulls look to be closing out this holiday-shortened week on a high note. It seems like ages ago now, but way back on Tuesday as we came off the three day weekend it looked like a good shot for bears to press...

08Sep9:17 amEST

J-Pow Money Printer Go...Ahhh?

A chart making the rounds of late (chart posted below, via @sentimenttrader ) has been how over-hedged institutions appear to be leaning right now, as many on social media infer therefore that we are on the cusp of an imminent short squeeze higher of epic proportions. If you have been following my work then clearly you know I am not of the...

07Sep10:44 amEST

Alternative Energy the Main Star

In front of an Apple event, more Fed speakers, then Powell tomorrow (although the WSJ seemed to make clear this morning that a 75 basis point rate hike is all but sealed), we have a modest bounce in equities underway. On the S&P 500 Index, the 3900 level looks to be the latest battleground area in full effect as we slowly but surely get...

06Sep10:02 amEST

I Told You I Ain't Got No Agua

Dip-buyers continue to operate under the assumption that the liquidity bonanza markets enjoyed since 2009--and then especially since March 2020--is still in full force despite The Fed's recent efforts to make it clear that is no longer the case. At times, they appear to be begging The Fed and massaging the data to infer a much-beloved "dovish...

04Sep9:48 amEST

Weekend Overview and Analysis 09/04/22 {Video}

The following video is a brief, condensed version of the full-length Weekend Video Strategy Session which I present each weekend to members of Market Chess Subscription Services. In the longer version, I offer tons of actionable trade ideas, educational content, and in-depth objective analysis across all markets. Please click here for more...

02Sep9:58 amEST

The Market Moves to Its Own Tune

Jazz is like wine. When it is new, it is only for the experts, but when it gets older, everybody wants it. -Steve Lacy After a jobs report which was essentially inline with expectations, markets took the opportunity to follow-through a bit higher on yesterday afternoon's comeback rally. That said, we are well off the morning highs already...

01Sep9:24 amEST

Yes, the Bond Market Can Crash

This is worth a re-post, especially in light of the summer rally in both stocks and Treasuries. I am re-posting this not to "pile on" to the recent weakness in TLT (as rates go back up) but rather to reinforce my view that a bond market crash/swoon/substantial move lower from here as rates go higher is absolutely on the table if rates...