Chasing One's Tail for Tail Risk

13Feb12:33 pmEST

We're Just Sweeping Dirty Dishes Under the Rug

It almost seems as though the market, and indeed many pundits, are still reeling from hot CPI print this morning. In other words, I seriously doubt we have seen the full brunt of the fallout from the notion that inflation is back on the upswing. Hence, imminent rate cuts are almost assuredly off the table, even for this Fed. And that is...

12Feb12:40 pmEST

Smooth Seas Forever

“A smooth sea never made a skilled sailor." -Franklin D. Roosevelt In front of tomorrow morning's Consumer Price Index print we have stocks higher. In particular, the rotation attempt down to small caps is taking hold. Even the oil stocks are finally waking up a bit, mostly the oil services names in the OIH ETF (look at RIG) and the...

11Feb9:40 amEST

Weekend Overview and Analysis 02/11/24 {Video}

The following video is a brief, condensed version of the full-length Weekend Video Strategy Session which I present each weekend to members of Market Chess Subscription Services. In the longer version, I offer tons of actionable trade ideas, educational content, and in-depth objective analysis across all markets. Please click here for more...

09Feb2:45 pmEST

Afternoon Update 02/09/24 {Video}

08Feb10:27 amEST

Are Big Round Numbers Too Beaucoup, Even for This Market?

Although it seems far more like a bunch of baloney than a brilliant observation, the truth is that Wall Street history is littered with major, multi-year (even multi-decade) showdowns at big, round numbers. We currently have the monster, NVDA, dueling with $700, and the S&P 500 Index battling the 5,000 level, both of which are at all-time...

07Feb1:34 pmEST

I Think I'll Just Stay Here and Drink

Long-term extended and expensive names, like COST ORLY and Visa, are pushing higher yet today as some of the heavier-weighted names in the Nasdaq, like META, also try to pick up the slack and drown out weakness in the small caps and biotechs again. The same dynamic, of an extremely narrow but historically resilient bull market melt-up, that we...

06Feb12:22 pmEST

Did AI Solve the Need to Ship Goods Around the World?

Nice breakout attempts from some nice shipping charts, below, which we have been noting with Members for a while now: GNK and SB. Meanwhile. NVDA is finally dipping and perhaps printing a bearish engulfing daily reversal candle, pending the close today. Still, we have seen this movie too many times before to not think that dip-buyers/0DTE...

05Feb11:26 amEST

We're Not Back Up Until This Happens

Of all the names composing the SMH, ETF for the semiconductors, the only names up more than 3% as I write this are ON and, of course, NVDA. Most of the rest of the ETF names are either red or up less than 1%. This is happening as the broad market sells off today, with the small caps and Dow clearly leading lower while the S&P and Nasdaq are...

04Feb10:24 amEST

Weekend Overview and Analysis 02/04/24 {Video}

The following video is a brief, condensed version of the full-length Weekend Video Strategy Session which I present each weekend to members of Market Chess Subscription Services. In the longer version, I offer tons of actionable trade ideas, educational content, and in-depth objective analysis across all markets. Please click here for more...

02Feb11:13 amEST

Chasing One's Tail for Tail Risk

Nasdaq bulls can try all they want to "front-run rate cuts and a restart of QE." However, as we saw this week rates may temporarily head lower, but they do not want to stay down for very long. Case in point: After a strong jobs report this morning we have rates on the 10-Year Note (below on the TNX Index daily chart) back over 4% as I write...