Follow the Trail

21Jan11:01 amEST

Weekend Overview and Analysis 01/21/24 {Video}

The following video is a brief, condensed version of the full-length Weekend Video Strategy Session which I present each weekend to members of Market Chess Subscription Services. In the longer version, I offer tons of actionable trade ideas, educational content, and in-depth objective analysis across all markets. Please click here for more...

19Jan11:17 amEST

Too Much Money Chasing After Too Few Goods

It is tough to think of a more blinking red light about another surge higher in inflation than the fallout from the ongoing tensions in the Red Sea than the major supply disruptions, as seen on a recent CNBC.com headline , below. On this options expiration Friday, stocks (especially tech, notably semiconductors, again) are ignoring any bad...

18Jan2:15 pmEST

Not Buying the AI Decadence

AMD reports earnings on January 29th, while NVDA reports out in February 28th. While I fully acknowledge the variance that earnings reports carry, I also view the action in AMD, especially, to be symptomatic of an "echo bubble" in chips based on the AI craze. We have seen as much in NVDA for a good while now. But AMD recently has gone bananas...

17Jan11:39 amEST

Sorting Through Winter Battles

I was just forced to cut a gold miner long trade, as the (likely) threat of no imminent March rate cut seems to be pressuring gold more than I expected. Of course, you know that I also am not expecting a rate cut, either, and have several other positions on to benefit from that, including an outright short on bonds as well as a bearish bet on...

16Jan11:13 amEST

Soft Landings Are for Loch Ness Monster Believers

My highest conviction view for 2024 remains that the now much-ballyhooed economic "soft landing" is in fact a mirage in the middle of the vast desert created by troubled monetary and fiscal policies coming home to roost, finally, after decades of can-kicking. While The Fed achieving that elusive soft landing, meaning inflation cools off...

15Jan10:19 amEST

Holiday Overview and Analysis 01/15/24 {Video}

The following video is a brief, condensed version of the full-length Weekend Video Strategy Session which I present each weekend to members of Market Chess Subscription Services. In the longer version, I offer tons of actionable trade ideas, educational content, and in-depth objective analysis across all markets. Please click here for more...

12Jan1:33 pmEST

Partying of the Red Sea

It may not be as biblical as the "parting of the Red Sea" by Moses, but some stocks are certainly partying due to the Red Sea tensions escalating today. Specifically with the U.S./British militaries striking back against Iran-backed Yemen amid Red Sea tensions, we have uranium, oil tanker, and gold miner stocks out in front of a sluggish...

11Jan12:42 pmEST

Rate Cuts?! Rate Cuts?! I Just Hope We Can Get to 2%

This morning's hot CPI saw an initially muted reaction from stocks, followed by the expected dip-buy spot. This time around, however, the dip-buyers slipped up a bit as we have small caps leading the rest of the indices lower to the tune of 1.7% as I write this. Without question, we saw immediate attempts from The Fed "whisperer," himself,...

10Jan11:04 amEST

Getting Spooky at Disney

In my weekend video for Members last Sunday I suggested that this was a "backloaded" week of events and headlines. Hence, stocks have mostly coasted up to this point, including this morning. Overall, we have a mixed, meandering bounce going in equities this morning, as equities almost assuredly are waiting on the CPI (inflation reading)...

09Jan12:01 pmEST

Follow the Trail

One of the benefits of a commodity like natural gas coming out of the gate hot to start the new year is that so many new traders since the pandemic do not give a hoot, quite frankly, about anything other than options on growth stocks and crypto/NFTs. Hence, when natty takes off, as it is again today, most will either gloss over it or even have...