MarketChess

23Jul1:26 pmEST

Misdirection to Throw You Off the Trail

After yesterday's relief bounce, the market is broadly being whipped around today with small caps outperforming. On the downside, however, semiconductors are among the worst performers on the back of an NXPI earnings selloff. Transports are also being sold as UPS is getting pounded after its own earnings.  However, I believe the takeaway from...

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22Jul11:44 amEST

New Regimes All the Way Around

If you accept the timeless Wall Street axiom that, "Markets hate uncertainty," then there can be little doubt an upcoming general election without the incumbent on the ballot will spark uncertainty, especially with President Biden dropping out of the race this late in the process. In addition, we have rising conflicts in the Middle East,...

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19Jul2:15 pmEST

Afternoon Update 07/19/24 {Video}

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18Jul11:43 amEST

A Bad Morning in Boca Raton

This morning was the first time in what seems like years (and perhaps is) that the Nasdaq Composite faded an initial heavy post-selloff rally hard.  In a corrective or bearish tape over the decades of modern market history we very often see opening gaps higher faded. This is a function of underwater longs who were levered needing to unwind...

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17Jul11:31 amEST

It's All One Big Trade

According to some folks I speak to in the institutional trenches, apparently the "low volatility" melt-up trade has seen quite a few shops, who previously had not dabbled in volatility, pile into selling it for a good while now. Part of that trade has enabled a nonstop rally in the mega cap techs, namely the "Mag7" leaders, alongside...

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16Jul12:12 pmEST

Gold is Sniffing Out the Mouse Trap

Students of history, and those who traded through it, will note that the best asset to own in the 1970s was gold, which went from $35 an ounce at the beginning of the decade to as high as $850 by 1980.  Gold, silver, and the miners are surging today, with gold printing a nominal new all-time high, as Fed Chair Jay Powell and his band of merry...

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15Jul1:05 pmEST

Fade to Nowhere

I have lost count of how many fades we have seen the Nasdaq this year which, inevitably, led to nowhere. Specifically, failed bearish reversals are the hallmark of a bullish melt-up, practically by definition. One expects it, even if one is a steadfast bear.  However, at a certain point it becomes comical. And this market, what with its...

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14Jul10:50 amEST

Weekend Overview and Analysis 07/14/24 {Video}

The following video is a brief, condensed version of the full-length Weekend Video Strategy Session which I present each weekend to members of Market Chess Subscription Services. In the longer version, I offer tons of actionable trade ideas, educational content, and in-depth objective analysis across all markets.  Please click here  for more...

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12Jul11:23 amEST

A Clear Setup Emerges This Summer

Talk about wanting your cake and eating, too. Or, perhaps, in this case: Burritos. Consumer and retail bulls (as well as small cap bulls) love to cheer for rate cuts, as though that will be some guaranteed panacea for a new leg higher in these stocks. However, history teaches us that rate cuts coming into rising unemployment is a recipe for a...

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11Jul11:35 amEST

I Want My Deflationary Steak!

I have been holding my bond short (via long the TBT ETF) for what seems like a decade or two. So, the silver lining to this morning's rally in bonds and selloff in rates off the cool CPI print is that I still have some modest profit cushion on the position. However, rates, homebuilders, small caps, and banks are all rallying on the move in...

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