Big Round Numbers and Obvious Tests

23Jan11:37 amEST

On a Collision Course

Courtesy of @WallStJesus, the chart below shows financial conditions easing considerably in recent months. And that goes double since the start of 2023. The market is clearly not interested in thinking too far ahead beyond trying to price in the bold assumption that The Fed will not only pause their rates hike soon but actually start easing in...

22Jan10:29 amEST

Weekend Overview and Analysis 01/22/23 {Video}

The following video is a brief, condensed version of the full-length Weekend Video Strategy Session which I present each weekend to members of Market Chess Subscription Services. In the longer version, I offer tons of actionable trade ideas, educational content, and in-depth objective analysis across all markets. Please click here for more...

20Jan11:00 amEST

The New Bull Argument: All You Can Eat Layoffs!

Just as someone will desperately try to escape quicksand at any costs and latch onto anything they can when they realize they are not positioned properly for it, so too are bulls who likely deep down know they are now fighting a losing battle (i.e. fighting a tightening Fed) amid slowing growth if not contraction. As the quicksand becomes more...

19Jan11:09 amEST

Louis, I Think This is the Beginning of a Beautiful Reversal

Despite a flurry of calls for a new bull market, you will note that the Nasdaq Composite Index, below on the updated daily chart, remains soundly below a declining 200-day simple moving average (yellow line). From a technical perspective, this is the essence of a bearish trend. And while I doubt the Nasdaq will lead the next bull market I also...

18Jan4:54 pmEST

Stock Market Recap 01/18/23 {Video}

The following video is a brief, condensed version of the Stock Market Recap which I present each evening to members of Market Chess Subscription Services. In the longer version, I offer tons of actionable trade ideas, educational content, and in-depth objective analysis across all markets. If you enjoy my videos and blog posts, then please...

18Jan12:04 pmEST

Central Banks Are Not Absolved of Their Sins

The Bank of Japan will kick the can all it wants, as it did overnight by continuing their Yield Curve Control monetary experiment, but in the end history says the final judgment will be ruthless. Considering Japan was once considered the epitome of a culture centered around honor, seeing its Central Bank devolve into a limp-wristed coward is...

17Jan4:20 pmEST

Stock Market Recap 01/17/23 {Video}

The following video is a brief, condensed version of the Stock Market Recap which I present each evening to members of Market Chess Subscription Services. In the longer version, I offer tons of actionable trade ideas, educational content, and in-depth objective analysis across all markets. If you enjoy my videos and blog posts, then please...

17Jan10:31 amEST

The Catalyst Always Comes Out of Left Field

I can assure you, as someone who lived through, traded, and diligently tracked and then revisited 2008 well after the fact, that very few people in the months leading up to (i.e. BEFORE!) Lehman Brothers failing--and the subsequent fallout--were expecting just that. Sure, I could always cherry-pick 9/11 in the prior bear market but, as we know,...

13Jan11:47 amEST

Line it Up for the Real Start of the New Year

This is a concept we discussed with Members as far back as mid-December, and it is worth repeating: It can often take up to two weeks after the holidays for the market to truly regain that full squad feeling and have it reflected in volumes-- Markets will be closed this Monday, January 16th in observance of Martin Luther King Jr. Day. ...

12Jan10:45 amEST

Big Round Numbers and Obvious Tests

After basically an inline CPI report, markets popped, reversed a bit lower, and are recovering now as I write this albeit with the Nasdaq slightly red. I still maintain this is the phase of the bear market where nonstop hope is attempting to singlehandedly reverse the dominant trend lower, but ultimately fails--We saw a similar situation in the...