MarketChess

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03Jul1:24 pmEST

The Panic of 1907

The Panic of 1907 was a six-week stretch of runs on banks in New York City and other American cities in October and early November of 1907. It was triggered by a failed speculation that caused the bankruptcy of two brokerage firms. But the shock that set in motion the events to create the Panic was the earthquake in San Francisco in 1906. The...

02Jul12:55 pmEST

Van Tharp on Position Sizing

via YouTube: Size really does matter in the markets! Position Sizing (a term coined by trading coach Van Tharp), tells you how much to risk on any particular trade. It is one of the most important concepts that any trader should know. Van Tharp has also written The Definitive to Position Sizing Strategies, a desk reference for serious traders.

01Jul12:28 pmEST

To Short or Not to Short?

By now it may not be a reach to declare the bullish seasonality argument for July to be well-known, if not an outright literal rallying cry for a market which continues to flounder. As the S&P 500 Index struggles to reclaim 3800, one has to wonder if the July bull setup may be a nasty trap which spawns a new leg down in the bear market.  What...

30Jun10:51 amEST

It's Not Adding Up

After a promising start to the week, oil stocks are giving up the ghost as we speak which is all the more an issue for the market given the persistent selling in growth and tech stocks.  We are in a seasonally stronger period for the next few weeks. However, this price action is not yet adding up to something actionable on the long side as I...

29Jun11:06 amEST

Morgan Stanley Agrees with Market Chess on Carnival

Fresh multi-year lows for cruise line Carnival this morning, as a Morgan Stanley analyst slashed the price target down to $7, and also laid out a super bear thesis  for shares to go to $0 with a potential demand shock looming.  A few weeks back, we noted that  we expect one of the major cruises, CCL NCLH or RCL, to file bankruptcy in 2022....

28Jun3:23 pmEST

A Downhill Threat

I came into today with a few longs on to probe the bear market rally thesis and bullish seasonality. But clearly the duration and size of the intraday selling off the opening pop took my aback. I felt fortunate to get out of one of the longs with modest, while stopping out of another.  As it stands now, my chief concern is the likes of junk and...

28Jun11:07 amEST

Inflation: Cherry Pickers' Paradise is Here

One phenomenon I am expecting, and already have seen quite a bit of, during this new inflationary regime is that when the inevitable dips come in certain, specific inflation readings we will see many harp on it as prima facie evidence of inflation effectively being squashed as a whole.  But I have serious doubts it will be as a simple as that. ...

27Jun3:15 pmEST

Perspective on a Rangebound Day

The major indices looked rangebound not long after the open this morning, and I remarked as much on the private Twitter feed with Members. As it stands now, this sort of action can be argued as proper digestion for bulls in light of the sharp rallying late last week. We have a few key events this week to wade through before we get to...

27Jun10:06 amEST

Even Good Ol' Boys Should Look at This China Play

If you are old enough, like me, to remember tickers like FUQI or RINO, among many, many, others, then you know the risks associated with trading China ADRs. There have been countless accounting frauds and, in essence, shell companies, to boot, although recently with The Fed ultra easy regime many of those were not uncovered the last few years. ...

26Jun11:36 amEST

Weekend Overview and Analysis 06/26/22 {Video}

The following video is a brief, condensed version of the full-length Weekend Video Strategy Session which I present each weekend to members of Market Chess Subscription Services. In the longer version, I offer tons of actionable trade ideas, educational content, and in-depth objective analysis across all markets.  Please click here  for more...

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