Bond Bulls Have it Wrong

14Aug12:32 pmEST

You Might Have Forgotten, But the Market Did Not

We can go back sixteen years, to the infamous 2007 bull market top, and the regional banking sector ETF (KRE, below on the monthly chart) will show a distinct sensitivity to the $50 (horizontal light blue line) area which will surely be mocked by many new age traders in the market as being a kind of antiquated way of looking at things. And,...

13Aug10:46 amEST

Weekend Overview and Analysis 08/13/23 {Video}

The following video is a brief, condensed version of the full-length Weekend Video Strategy Session which I present each weekend to members of Market Chess Subscription Services. In the longer version, I offer tons of actionable trade ideas, educational content, and in-depth objective analysis across all markets. Please click here for more...

11Aug1:20 pmEST

I Feel Sorry for Your Thesis

A clip of Jerome Powell giving testimony on Capitol Hill has been making the rounds on Twitter of late. In the clip, he responds to a, "why does The Fed have a 2% inflation target, anyway?" question unimpressively, to say the least. If nothing else, it drives home the point about just how clueless these Central Bankers truly are and how...

10Aug1:24 pmEST

Summer Always Turns Into Hurricane Season

We live in a lower trust society nowadays, and perhaps that means a lower trust market, too. In fact, I am quite sure that is the case, where every bit of data, such as this morning's CPI print, and every market machination is met with a skeptical eye of conspiracy by a not-insignificant group of market players and pundits. Such is life,...

09Aug11:28 amEST

I Wasn't Joking About the South Sea Bubble

I have been doing this for a long time now; Writing about markets in full public view on a daily basis for nearly fifteen years. So when I pen a piece like I did here on July 31st of this year, comparing the long-term parabolic charts of AAPL NVDA to the Dutch Tulip Mania, the South Sea Bubble, John Law and the Mississippi Stock Bubble, and...

08Aug11:07 amEST

We're Moving to a Higher Plane

Dare I say, the era of low volatility is over. With volatility sellers as cocky as I have ever seen them, to dovetail mega cap tech bulls, the stage is set for a nasty volatility unwind higher. To be sure, this entire process has taken much longer than I ever anticipated. However, nothing has changed the underlying picture which is why I...

07Aug2:10 pmEST

Natty Gas: Maybe the Nine Millionth Time Will Be the Charm

Anyone who has traded natural gas over the years, be it the commodity futures contract themselves or the various ETFs, knows how uniquely tricky it can be insofar as various head-fakes and traps. However, with the energy complex catching a strong bid during the middle portion of this summer, namely crude and gasoline futures, it is certainly...

06Aug10:53 amEST

Weekend Overview and Analysis 08/06/23 {Video}

The following video is a brief, condensed version of the full-length Weekend Video Strategy Session which I present each weekend to members of Market Chess Subscription Services. In the longer version, I offer tons of actionable trade ideas, educational content, and in-depth objective analysis across all markets. Please click here for more...

04Aug2:28 pmEST

Fitch's Get Stitches

While it may be tempting to praise the credit ratings agency, Fitch Ratings, for its recent downgrade of U.S. debt as being an admirable display of courage and integrity, I am willing to bet they had plenty of other reasons for making the move, too. Fitch, of course, got publicity from it. They also cement a ton of of ye-olde "covering one's...

03Aug1:27 pmEST

Bond Bulls Have it Wrong

The sheer duration and size of the consolidation Treasuries have been operating in, since last autumn when equities bottomed, almost assuredly means that when the inevitable directional break comes from said consolidation it will take many by surprise and oftentimes be far more violent in nature than most expect--Paul Tudor Jones has famous...