MarketChess

14Aug3:22 pmEST

If You Don't Like the Temperature, Just Change the Thermometer

Even with one of the hottest PPI prints I can recall in years earlier this morning, the CME FedWatch odds for rate cuts at the next FOMC (and each subsequent one into early-2026) are still well over 90%. Now, The Fed may opt for a 25 bps cut in lieu of 50 bps given the hot print.  But unless Jerome Powell can summons the fortitude to shun both...

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13Aug3:29 pmEST

Prepare for the New Era of Tinkering

It is well documented that during times of entrenched inflation, like in the 1970s, we see folks "stretching out" every last ounce they can get from their household durables (also known as durable goods, items designed for long-term use within a household, typically lasting for three years or more).  In other words, spending the money to...

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12Aug3:15 pmEST

Sky High Nihilism

The major indices and leading stocks continue to operate in a kind of nihilistic world where any and all news items, macro reports, slight dips, bearish technical setups, etc., all point to higher equities, regardless. While it seems like a new paradigm has taken hold, one which has permanently changed markets forever, we know history implores...

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11Aug2:53 pmEST

Many Converts Await

With President Trump announcing he is casting his net even wider with candidates to become his nominee for next Fed Chair, it only creates an even larger incentive for said candidates to audition via a blatantly dovish view on rates. Put another way, the most dovish candidate has a better chance of winning Trump's nomination than a hawkish one,...

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08Aug3:06 pmEST

Afternoon Update 08/08/25 {Video}

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07Aug2:28 pmEST

I Feel Sorry for Your Bubble

Putting to one side the fade in large cap tech today, the perennial lagging sectors like regional banks (KRE ETF) and smaller cap biotech (XBI ETF, below on the daily chart) have not quite lived up to the many calls for a bonafide rotation into the back half of 2025 and beyond.  For a good while now we have been in both in a bifurcated market...

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06Aug10:29 amEST

One Last Trip for Old Times' Sake

It should not come as too much of surprise to see the semiconductor AMD struggle after earnings in the area above $160. After all, gauging the monthly chart, below, we have seen Advanced Micro Devices run into major tops above that level dating back several years now.  As I write this, AMD is leading the SMH semiconductor ETF lower, the former...

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04Aug2:09 pmEST

Big Week for Vegas But Well Off the Strip

In light of recent buzz about the plight of Las Vegas, it seems fitting that DraftKings is set to report earnings this week on Wednesday evening. After all, on top of rising room rates/resort fees in Vegas as well as a multitude of other factors, the rise of legalized online gambling across the country is surely one of several reasons for Las...

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01Aug3:36 pmEST

Afternoon Update 08/01/25 {Video}

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31Jul3:28 pmEST

Muddy Tug of War

The ARM earnings disappointment (down 13.7%) has had a surprisingly strong effect on the Nasdaq today, considering all of the hype surrounding both Meta and Microsoft rallying sharply after earnings last evening. As it stands now META is still up more than 11%, MSFT up nearly 4%, yet the QQQ is red as we head into Apple and Amazon earnings this...

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