MarketChess

07May1:08 pmEST

Chasing the Mystery

Much debate is currently swirling about whether we are, in fact, seeing another wave higher of inflation or, instead, inflation is either flat-lining or even receding. There seem to be intelligent, well-studied folks on both sides of that debate. Housing and rents figure to be the tiebreaker. And as we know, real estate can be inherently local...

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06May12:31 pmEST

The Time is Now for Commodities

While skeptics will surely point to the recent unwind in cocoa's parabolic move, the reality is that commodities are staging an impressive, broad-based rally today after some generally mild recent consolidations almost across the board.  You may also notice that some of the more notorious commodities, regarding prior false breakouts and...

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03May1:19 pmEST

Afternoon Update 05/03/24 {Video}

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02May11:42 amEST

A Hangover Into Apple

Although I have strong personal opinions about Powell and The Fed, the fact remains that the market is still sorting out the FOMC yesterday and all of its possible ramifications. Hence, it is probably not too instructive to spend much more time in a blog post bloviating about the current monetary policy.  Far more relevant and tangible for us...

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01May12:01 pmEST

Breaking Away

You may be surprised to know that shares of Starbucks are currently trading at the same spot they were five years ago nearly to the day. This is a consequence of the latest earnings gap down last evening, amid terrible comps.  On the updated monthly chart for SBUX, below, you can see the monstrous breakaway gap lower--To see such a gap on the...

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30Apr1:11 pmEST

Occam's Razor Earnings Season

Although the headlines last Thursday evening noted that Microsoft was "surging" after earnings alongside GOOGL, the aftermath has been anything but that for "Mister Softee." As a reminder, MSFT is the largest publicly-traded firm in America, at nearly $3 trillion. A blowout earnings rally in AAPL NVDA, or further rampage in GOOGL may unseat...

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29Apr11:54 amEST

I Refuse to Believe the Fix is In

Watching  Eight Men Out (1988), one of my favorite all-time period piece historical films, again last evening, I thought about some emails I received from readers of late positing that "they" simply will not let the market fall in an election year. If you have seen the film then you know the relevance of considering whether markets are...

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26Apr12:38 pmEST

Afternoon Update 04/26/24 {Video}

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25Apr11:48 amEST

NVIDIA: Noise or Nonstop Momentum?

Even with the sharp META selloff, semiconductors are one of the clear morning winners as Zuck and his team emphasized on the conference calls that he will be spending money on AI. Thus, NVIDIA is out in front of the group.  That said, on the updated NVDA daily chart, below, now more than ever it is important to focus on the context of these...

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24Apr11:14 amEST

A Slip 'N Slide Setup

After an auspicious open for bulls on the back of TSLA and TXN earnings rallies, stocks look to finally be noticing the stickiness in rates as we fade into late-morning.  As I write this I see that rates on the 10-Year are above 4.65% and have 4.7% as the next near-term breakout level within shot. In addition, it is hard not to think that 5% is...

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