MarketChess

24Jun2:44 pmEST

Come and Get Me, Copper

It seems difficult to look through the Iran/Israel ceasefire jubilation in markets this week, with equities squeezing higher while oil gets slammed lower. However, it is worth noting that Fed Chair Powell maintained a (relatively, for him) hawkish stance during the first day of his two-day testimony before the House Committee today. In other...

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23Jun3:03 pmEST

Operation Midday Hammer

On the news that Iran's retaliation today against a U.S. air base in Qatar appeared to be nothing more than face-saving theater, equities reversed back up sharply from red while crude oil plunged, with the USO ETF down by more than 7% as I write this.  I do not doubt the assertion that tensions with Iran may begin to subside if these...

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20Jun2:57 pmEST

Afternoon Update 06/20/25 {Video}

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18Jun3:32 pmEST

Is This Powell's Waterloo?

"Waterloo" commonly refers to a decisive or crushing defeat. This meaning originates from the Battle of Waterloo, fought in 1815 near Waterloo, Belgium, where Napoleon Bonaparte suffered a final, devastating loss. The term is often used in the idiom "meet one's Waterloo," meaning to face a final, insurmountable obstacle or defeat. In his...

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17Jun3:10 pmEST

It's Taking its Ayatollah on Me

I must admit that the swirling headlines about trade deals and now the potential for American to officially enter into World War III has become more tedious than usual regarding the knee-jerk reactions by the markets (and general indecision). All of this seems to have drowned out tomorrow's FOMC. However, it is a mistake to overlook The Fed...

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16Jun3:00 pmEST

Dazed and Confused Stocks

Even with escalations over the weekend between Iran and Israel the "nothing ever happens" mantra/meme on Wall Street seems more relevant than ever with equities rallying today after last Friday's initial selloff. Semiconductors and the Nasdaq, overall, are leading the move, while various rate-sensitive sectors like REITs (IYR), housing, and...

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13Jun3:08 pmEST

Afternoon Update 06/13/25 {Video}

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12Jun2:54 pmEST

Minsky Moments in Time

“(S)tagflation is the price we pay for the success we have had in avoiding a great or serious depression. The techniques that have been used since the mid-sixties to abort the debt-deflations have clearly been responsible for the stepwise acceleration in the inflation rates” -Hyman Minsky Earlier today I saw @sidprabhu on X link back to some...

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11Jun2:20 pmEST

Ceremonial Viciousness

I find it hard to believe in a pure coincidence regarding this afternoon's fade in equities just as the IWM finally--finally--tagged its 200-day moving average from below.  As you know, the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq have all tagged and exceeded their respective 200-day moving averages during this rally since April. All that was left was for the...

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10Jun12:03 pmEST

Subtle Detective Work

On the surface it seems like another low volume session drifting slightly higher for the major indices, even with some major American cities like Los Angeles facing various disruptions from protests, riots, and looting.  From my perch the market seems far more focused with the ongoing trade talks with China and looming inflation data tomorrow...

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