MarketChess

01Jul2:53 pmEST

Tilting the Odds

Amid the steep selloff in tech and especially semiconductors today to kick off the new month and quarter, it seems to be lost in the shuffle that both the banks and insurers (the latter on the ETF monthly chart, second below, breaking out) are rallying sharply. Recall that both the banks and insurance firms are seen as "rate-sensitive," meaning...

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30Jun1:49 pmEST

You Come to Expect the Fight

Despite Treasuries topping out during the pandemic (which means rates on the long end of the curve bottomed) we still have not yet seen a classic panic/washout bottom in the bond market. Bond bulls remain steadfast that a new bull market in bonds is just around the corner, either due to money leaving equities and commodities during a...

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29Jun3:28 pmEST

Doesn't Seem Aboveboard

Here we are again after another weekend of rapid fire reports of escalations with Iran, followed by a miracle Sunday evening announcement (just before futures opened) that both sides had (apparently) agreed to peace talks this week.  It is difficult to believe that the market keeps going along with this shockingly redundant pattern, especially...

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26Jun3:34 pmEST

Afternoon Update 06/26/26 {Video}

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25Jun2:15 pmEST

Let's Get This Out of the Red

After forcing myself to be patient for several months now, I am warming up to the idea that most of the commodity complex has been washed out lower, be it oil, gold, silver, and ags. Specifically, the levered longs from last month in oil are likely at the point where they are mumbling to themselves as they walk to their cars in the casino...

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24Jun11:00 amEST

Micron Macro

Semiconductors are displaying relative weakness as I write this amid a broad market morning bounce to respond to yesterday's sharp Nasdaq-led selloff. However, we have to be honest that this is all prologue to the ~$1.2 trillion market cap Micron Technology, Inc. earnings event this evening. And that is all the more pronounced given that we...

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22Jun3:14 pmEST

They Sell Occam's Razors at Big Box Stores

While the weakness in the Magnificent 7 (using MAGS ETF as a gauge) is finally becoming too much to ignore today, as GOOGL and AMZN are selling off heavily to follow the ongoing META MSFT underperformance, let us not ignore the continued laggards in the housing retail big box segment.  For a good while now we have profiled the bearish chart...

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18Jun2:55 pmEST

Afternoon Update 06/18/26 {Video}

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17Jun3:32 pmEST

Warsh Sale Rule Begins

Despite being fluent in corporate-speak, Kevin Warsh still got the point across during his first FOMC presser as Fed Chair that inflation is a legitimate concern, perhaps more than Jerome Powell let on during his final years as Chair. As a result, equities mostly reversed lower albeit with the plucky semiconductors still up nicely on the...

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16Jun3:03 pmEST

Enter Sandisk

Exit light Enter night Take my hand We're off to never-never land, yeah As much as the recent SpaceX (SPCX) IPO has been capturing headlines and momentum hype the reality is that Sandisk has clearly taken over this spring as the hottest name in the hottest sector of the hottest index during this melt-up. In fact, you may have seen...

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