Monthly Archives: June 2022

Showing articles 1 - 10 (37 total)

30Jun10:51 amEST

It's Not Adding Up

After a promising start to the week, oil stocks are giving up the ghost as we speak which is all the more an issue for the market given the persistent selling in growth and tech stocks.  We are in a seasonally stronger period for the next few weeks. However, this price action is not yet adding up to something actionable on the long side as I...

29Jun11:06 amEST

Morgan Stanley Agrees with Market Chess on Carnival

Fresh multi-year lows for cruise line Carnival this morning, as a Morgan Stanley analyst slashed the price target down to $7, and also laid out a super bear thesis  for shares to go to $0 with a potential demand shock looming.  A few weeks back, we noted that  we expect one of the major cruises, CCL NCLH or RCL, to file bankruptcy in 2022....

28Jun3:23 pmEST

A Downhill Threat

I came into today with a few longs on to probe the bear market rally thesis and bullish seasonality. But clearly the duration and size of the intraday selling off the opening pop took my aback. I felt fortunate to get out of one of the longs with modest, while stopping out of another.  As it stands now, my chief concern is the likes of junk and...

28Jun11:07 amEST

Inflation: Cherry Pickers' Paradise is Here

One phenomenon I am expecting, and already have seen quite a bit of, during this new inflationary regime is that when the inevitable dips come in certain, specific inflation readings we will see many harp on it as prima facie evidence of inflation effectively being squashed as a whole.  But I have serious doubts it will be as a simple as that. ...

27Jun3:15 pmEST

Perspective on a Rangebound Day

The major indices looked rangebound not long after the open this morning, and I remarked as much on the private Twitter feed with Members. As it stands now, this sort of action can be argued as proper digestion for bulls in light of the sharp rallying late last week. We have a few key events this week to wade through before we get to...

27Jun10:06 amEST

Even Good Ol' Boys Should Look at This China Play

If you are old enough, like me, to remember tickers like FUQI or RINO, among many, many, others, then you know the risks associated with trading China ADRs. There have been countless accounting frauds and, in essence, shell companies, to boot, although recently with The Fed ultra easy regime many of those were not uncovered the last few years. ...

26Jun11:36 amEST

Weekend Overview and Analysis 06/26/22 {Video}

The following video is a brief, condensed version of the full-length Weekend Video Strategy Session which I present each weekend to members of Market Chess Subscription Services. In the longer version, I offer tons of actionable trade ideas, educational content, and in-depth objective analysis across all markets.  Please click here  for more...

24Jun10:26 amEST

Roe v. Wade Overturned: Here's the Play

In a 5-4 decision, the Supreme Court has just overturned Roe v. Wade and ended the constitutional right to abortion. This clearly qualifies as international breaking news, although from a market perspective it seems like it is purely politically and socially-charged.  That said, as one of our Members astutely noted, there may be in a play here...

23Jun3:45 pmEST

Dating Only: Don't Get Attached to This Rally

Despite all of the wild intraday fades of late, including weakness in the futures overnight, bulls are putting up a formidable fight this week in the face of Powell's comments. With end of month, quarter, 4th of July, and a bit better seasonality all approaching rapidly, I view the outperformance from bios and ARKK as, perhaps, a sign that...

23Jun10:39 amEST

You Can't Stop What's Comin', That's Vanity

One phenomenon I have noticed of late has been market pundits bemoaning the lack of a true, washout capitulatory bottom. On CNBC, morning anchor Joe Kernan has been wondering aloud on a daily basis whether we need to see the VIX pop above 40 to get us close to a true bear market bottom. While it may seem like we will never get that...

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