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06May11:34 amEST
Still Waters, Deep and Dangerous
The old English expression, "still waters run deep," often implies someone who seems rather unassuming on the outside but is quite capable of a great many things on the inside. In Italian, this expression manifests itself as "‘l’acqua cheta rovina i ponti," which translates as, "still waters ruin bridges." The Italian version has a far more...
05May3:28 pmEST
Operation: Live to Fight Another Day
I am 100% cash in my trading account here, tempted to take on some shorts overnight and press for a wipeout. That said, after my thinking that commodity stocks were ripe to extend a fresh rally clearly petered out rather quickly today, I am going to respect the wild indecision and daily price swings we are seeing now until we get more clarity...
05May10:16 amEST
Playing the Triangle Offense
In addition to the UGA gasoline ETF chart we have been teaching, both crude oil and wheat, on their respective ETF and fund charts, below, are sporting bullish-looking triangle consolidations in the context of prior uptrends. In light of The Fed's pussyfooting around its "fight" against historically high inflation, the only two ways out of it...
04May3:20 pmEST
Be Careful with Your Birds, Jay
After sloshing around for the first forty minutes or so after the FOMC decision to raise by fifty basis points and commence a baby step QT program next month, stocks catapulted higher as Fed Chair Jay Powell in his presser decisively said a seventy-five basis point rate hike was not even under consideration. While Powell also made...
04May10:53 amEST
Expect Head Fakes
With such a widely-hyped FOMC later today, at 2pm EST, one simply has to brace for the seemingly inevitable post-decision whipsaws and likely head fakes to come. Also note we have a Chair Powell presser starting at 2:30pm EST, which is sure to be market moving as he potentially drops hints at the size of the rate hike in the June FOMC, too. In...
03May3:47 pmEST
One Word Best Describes This Market
Quite a few folks, even long-time bears, seem hell-bent on declaring that a sustained relief rally is imminent after the FOMC tomorrow. While there are some rumblings that The Fed may actually tighten more than the fifty basis points the market expects tomorrow, that is all conjecture at this point (at least for someone like me with no insider...
03May10:50 amEST
Feel Like a Curmudgeon
One area over the years I have learned where it is crucial to distinguish what sort of overall market regime you are in is when it comes to oversold potential rallies. In bull markets, especially those where The Fed is launching bazookas full of QE and other assorted monetary goodies for markets, aggressively calling bottoms to oversold...
02May2:15 pmEST
Here's the Punch Line
Stocks are slipping a bit further down this afternoon after a session full of whacky swings up until this point, as we await the FOMC later this week. Despite the giveback in equities, however, and in support of my morning blog post where I argued The Fed is likely continue down its fast-hike cycle in a hawkish manner, here's the punch line:...
02May9:55 amEST
The Exit Door for Treasuries is Growing Smaller By the Day
Amid swirling daily headlines regarding world wars, economic growth issues, politics, Buffett and Munger, social issues, and tons of other news, it can be easy to forget that the bond market is still flashing signs of a major regime change underway. On the updated multi-decade chart for TNX, which represents rates (inverse the Treasury prices,...
01May10:08 amEST
Weekend Overview and Analysis 05/01/22 {Video}
The following video is a brief, condensed version of the full-length Weekend Video Strategy Session which I present each weekend to members of Market Chess Subscription Services. In the longer version, I offer tons of actionable trade ideas, educational content, and in-depth objective analysis across all markets. Please click here for more...
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About
“chessNwine” has been a popular trader and financial blogger since 2009. His work has appeared in The Wall Street Journal Online Edition, Yahoo Finance, TheStreet.com, Josh Brown’s The Reformed Broker blog, AbnormalReturns.com, Barry Ritholtz’s The Big Picture blog, and the “Suggested” stream on Stocktwits.com.
