Trading Ideas

Showing articles 201 - 220 (5362 total)

07Aug2:10 pmEST

Natty Gas: Maybe the Nine Millionth Time Will Be the Charm

Anyone who has traded natural gas over the years, be it the commodity futures contract themselves or the various ETFs, knows how uniquely tricky it can be insofar as various head-fakes and traps.  However, with the energy complex catching a strong bid during the middle portion of this summer, namely crude and gasoline futures, it is certainly...

06Aug10:53 amEST

Weekend Overview and Analysis 08/06/23 {Video}

The following video is a brief, condensed version of the full-length Weekend Video Strategy Session which I present each weekend to members of Market Chess Subscription Services. In the longer version, I offer tons of actionable trade ideas, educational content, and in-depth objective analysis across all markets.  Please click here  for more...

04Aug2:28 pmEST

Fitch's Get Stitches

While it may be tempting to praise the credit ratings agency, Fitch Ratings, for its recent downgrade of U.S. debt as being an admirable display of courage and integrity, I am willing to bet they had plenty of other reasons for making the move, too. Fitch, of course, got publicity from it. They also cement a ton of of ye-olde "covering one's...

03Aug1:27 pmEST

Bond Bulls Have it Wrong

The sheer duration and size of the consolidation Treasuries have been operating in, since last autumn when equities bottomed, almost assuredly means that when the inevitable directional break comes from said consolidation it will take many by surprise and oftentimes be far more violent in nature than most expect--Paul Tudor Jones has famous...

01Aug2:50 pmEST

Summertime Blues for the Lag

We have High Yield Corporate and Junk Bonds (HYG, JNK ETFs, respectively) gapping down hard from a cluster of recent sideways candlesticks denoting a possible bearish reversal down. Meanwhile, both rates and the U.S. Dollar are on the move higher, with rates on the 10-Year Note suddenly coming close to that key 4.1% level we have been noting...

31Jul10:36 amEST

We All Have it Coming, Kid

AAPL and NVDA multi-year charts, first below, versus the Mississippi Stock Bubble, the Dutch Tulip Mania, South Sea Bubble, and RCA stock from the Roaring Twenties into the Great Depression.  I recognize there are plenty of reasons circulating as to why this time is different and not a bubble.  However, I can assure you with a modicum of...

30Jul11:58 amEST

Weekend Overview and Analysis 07/30/23 {Video}

The following video is a brief, condensed version of the full-length Weekend Video Strategy Session which I present each weekend to members of Market Chess Subscription Services. In the longer version, I offer tons of actionable trade ideas, educational content, and in-depth objective analysis across all markets.  Please click here  for more...

28Jul1:01 pmEST

Relentless History

The bid in equities certainly seems relentless and is likely historic on many fronts, as we have been noting. As an example, the Bank of Japan yield curve control semi-"tweak" overnight was taken n stride, at least for now. And CNN's Fear & greed Index its till stubbornly in "Extreme Greed" territory.  However, if you have been following along...

27Jul12:31 pmEST

This Will Be the Spark

Putting to one side the omnipresent "Black Swan" risks of Japan's markets imploding, the Euro Zone going bust, China/Taiwan, North Korea, and of course Russian/Ukraine, the far more imminent risk as I see it is inflation surging back higher in the face of a Fed Chair staying stubbornly methodical and hellbent on not surprising markets.  But...

26Jul3:23 pmEST

Even the Price of Milquetoast is Rising

milque·toast noun: milquetoast; plural noun: milquetoasts a timid or feeble person. adjective: milquetoast feeble, insipid, or bland. "a soppy, milquetoast composer" Origin 1930s: from the name of a cartoon character, Caspar Milquetoast, created by H. T. Webster in 1924. It is hard to imagine a Fed Chair more timid in his...

25Jul11:25 amEST

Slowly But Surely, Starting to Come Together

The indices may be telling a different story for now, but sectors like the airlines (ETF below on the weekly timeframe) are indicating that inflationary pressures alongside a softening consumer are finally showing some wear and tear.  As you can see on JETS, the reversal we noted a few weeks ago after Delta's earnings continues to...

24Jul12:35 pmEST

A Midsummer Central Banker's Dream (or Nightmare)

The Italians call it, "Ferragosto," which is basically a public holiday for summer vacation in August. Other cultures around the world have similar traditions, especially in Europe. Here in America, most industries keep their noses to the grindstone, or at least they did. But the wizards of Wall Street are usually out on the Hamptons, Cape Cod,...

23Jul7:52 amEST

Weekend Overview and Analysis 07/23/23 {Video}

The following video is a brief, condensed version of the full-length Weekend Video Strategy Session which I present each weekend to members of Market Chess Subscription Services. In the longer version, I offer tons of actionable trade ideas, educational content, and in-depth objective analysis across all markets.  Please click here  for more...

21Jul2:09 pmEST

This Sentiment is No Joke

CNN Fear & Greed Index's (below, updated) rigorous methodology has pointed to stubborn "Extreme Greed" for over a month now with only very brief slippage down to "Greed" territory. For as long as I have been tracking this Index, this is easily one of the longest streaks in either extreme territory that I have seen.  But of course that is not...

20Jul2:18 pmEST

It's Not Just Netflix and Tesla

The headlines will naturally gravitate towards last evening's marquee earnings reports, NFLX and TSLA, as being the genesis for today's selloff mostly led lower in the Nasdaq.  However, do not overlook rates on the 10-Year Note (below on the weekly chart for TNX) bouncing back over 3.8% and off prior resistance trend as support now.  Higher...

18Jul3:35 pmEST

The Sun Sets on Slam Dunk Investing

Earlier today I was reminded by a Member who had nailed the weakness in Hershey, below on the quarterly chart, that the iconic confectioner in central Pennsylvania had defied the market melt-up and has been as weak as any name since early-May.  Alongside KO MCD PEP, I would have to say HSY represents the QE/ZIRP liquidity bonanza insofar as...

17Jul2:58 pmEST

Don't Write Off This Civilization, Just Yet

Quite a bit of buzz again about the death of the Dollar of late, especially in light of the selloff in the greenback.  And while I am quite bullish on commodities due to entrenched inflation for the rest of the decade, in the short-term I still think the Dollar has some unfinished business above.  In particular, we spent some time this weekend...

16Jul9:56 amEST

Weekend Overview and Analysis 07/16/23 {Video}

The following video is a brief, condensed version of the full-length Weekend Video Strategy Session which I present each weekend to members of Market Chess Subscription Services. In the longer version, I offer tons of actionable trade ideas, educational content, and in-depth objective analysis across all markets.  Please click here  for more...

13Jul3:28 pmEST

Only D.B. Cooper Can Turn This Market Now

Days like today make it feel like the market will rise at least 1% per day in perpetuity. After all, we have nonstop 0DTE options traders without a care in the world about SEC scrutiny, a Fed Chair who hems and haws even when he is supposedly hawkish, daily meme stocks like EDTX going bananas to the upside, and mega cap tech like META seemingly...

12Jul10:19 amEST

Celebrating What's Swept Under

Markets are still ebullient as I write this, with the softer CPI print this morning going as expected for the majority. The issue is that since the June CPI data, we have gasoline prices and oil going much higher, as seen respectively below on the daily charts for UGA and USO ETFs.  Even though energy is only one part of the CPI, it is surely a...

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