Trading Ideas

Showing articles 201 - 220 (5318 total)

31May10:51 amEST

Check the Forecast Before Any More Bookings

Booking Holdings (BKNG), below on the daily chart, actually printed new all-time highs just two weeks ago.  Since then, as you can see, the stock has headed straight downhill. Formerly Priceline.com, Booking has clearly been a monster winner since 2009 as one of the poster children for a QE/ZIRP world, and then the "stimmies" of the pandemic...

30May10:48 amEST

The Same Battlefield Formation

Surprise, surprise.  Chips and NVDA are leading the charge higher, while small caps, retail and China names (KWEB ETF, e.g.) are all red as I write this. We have profiled these divergences quite a bit lately. And I recognize that tech bulls are simply responding with a, "So, what?" view to the whole deal.  But my view that the move in NVDA and...

28May11:09 amEST

Weekend Overview and Analysis 05/28/23 {Video}

The following video is a brief, condensed version of the full-length Weekend Video Strategy Session which I present each weekend to members of Market Chess Subscription Services. In the longer version, I offer tons of actionable trade ideas, educational content, and in-depth objective analysis across all markets.  Please click here  for more...

25May10:37 amEST

Where There's Smoke, There's...Divergences

Another day, another session of glaring divergences which bulls are clearly mocking due to shares of NVDA launching a rocket to the moon and trading about 25% higher as I write this.  Still, small caps in the IWM ETF are down by nearly 1% right now after shedding 1% yesterday, and rates and the Dollar continue to push higher yet. High yield and...

22May1:28 pmEST

It's a Free Country, Brother

Last year I penned a blog post where I wrote that Starbucks had substantial downside. Clearly, that was wrong as the rally in 2023 as SBUX opened the year at $100.56 and went as high as $115.48 on May 1st.  However, viewing the updated quarterly chart, below, as the great liquidity drain from markets has seen various long-term charts extend up...

21May10:05 amEST

Weekend Overview and Analysis 05/21/23 {Video}

The following video is a brief, condensed version of the full-length Weekend Video Strategy Session which I present each weekend to members of Market Chess Subscription Services. In the longer version, I offer tons of actionable trade ideas, educational content, and in-depth objective analysis across all markets.  Please click here  for more...

19May3:12 pmEST

Just When No One Believes in Them Anymore...

Just when no one believes in reversal candlesticks anymore, to the point of not only failing to care enough to mock them (and bears) but outright display apathy to them, we have big, bad, Alphabet with its AI kick sporting a glaring bearish reversal candle today after a steep rally poking above its upper daily chart Bollinger Band (below). All...

18May3:14 pmEST

There's Something About AI

More divergences piling up outside of the AI craze in NVDA GOOGL, etc.. Besides glaring weakness in China plays, we have the REITs, below on the IYR ETF daily chart, soft and threatening to continue lower as rates move higher.  DRV is a more liquid bear ETF than SRS worth watching for the group.  I understand it seems like "nothing matters" for...

18May10:08 amEST

Triple Play Divergence

"But the Nasdaq doesn't care," is a popular--and true--refrain from bulls right now, when hearing of various headwinds and negative divergence equities are facing.  Indeed, seeing NVDA pop above $300 this week is truly something to behold.  That said, one of our two main scenarios with Members was that we would see a final pop higher in markets...

17May11:15 amEST

It was Japan All Along

We have discussed the bearish action in China names quite a bit lately, be it the FXI country ETF or the KWEB ETF for high beta China internet names. Indeed, the weakness in China, including relative softness to the Nasdaq in this morning's tape, has taken quite a few bulls by surprise who had been adamant that a China re-opening would spark a...

15May11:26 amEST

These Stocks Are in the "Zone," Alright

I charted O'Reilly Automotive Inc. (ORLY) on the quarterly timeframe both with Members and the main feed earlier this morning. But even the daily chart for ORLY shows a parabolic move higher as it was one of the clear beneficiaries of the QE/ZIRP era and then the "stimmies" from the pandemic as Americans went bonkers throwing money into their...

14May10:55 amEST

Weekend Overview and Analysis 05/14/23 {Video}

The following video is a brief, condensed version of the full-length Weekend Video Strategy Session which I present each weekend to members of Market Chess Subscription Services. In the longer version, I offer tons of actionable trade ideas, educational content, and in-depth objective analysis across all markets.  Please click here  for more...

12May1:04 pmEST

Are We Sure the Dollar is Done?

The U.S. Dollar is rather quietly putting the finishing touches today on a strong week.  Despite all of the talk of "De-Dollarization" and the like in recent weeks and months, you can see the weekly UUP ETF chart, below, show the big green weekly candle we are finishing today as well as the overall triangle consolidation/correction since last...

11May2:46 pmEST

Battle on the Bridge

Imagine a market being fought in real-life on a bridge. On one side of the bridge we have the FANG mega cap monsters, and on the other we have the regional banks. In the middle of the bridge are many other sectors. Which side will wind up with the most manpower?  Well, for starters, if the REITs (commercial real estate in the IYR ETF, first...

10May11:46 amEST

Little Homebuilders on the Prairie

The strength in homebuilders since last October 2022's lows has indeed been impressive, even though the sector is still well below its prior late-2021 all-time highs as you can see on the XHB ETF weekly chart, below.  We can also see, however, prior support from earlier in 2021 now potentially converting into resistance. In fact, I am expecting...

09May9:50 amEST

Back in the Saddle

Seeing as the S&P 500 is trading pretty much exactly where it was one year ago at this time, it occurred to me that this period may very well be referred to as, "The Great Drain." So what is being drained? Brokerage accounts? Mental and emotional capital? Careers? Precious time on Earth? Perhaps all of those. However, I am specifically...

03May10:46 amEST

Enough Georgetown Cocktail Parties, Jerome

I know it is a tough world out there, Jay Powell. Everyone from Bill Ackman, hiding his ruthlessness behind a perfect facial exfoliation, to CEOs, long-only investors, economists, among others, are pressuring the esteemed Fed Chair to pause from hiking rates later today at the FOMC around 2pm EST. Beyond that, many are calling for Powell to...

02May12:50 pmEST

Evidence of My Conviction

I continue to view the current overall market structure as being one of the rare moments to have deeply held conviction that equities will eventually resolve sharply lower this year. And although I have had my fair share of stop-outs and miscalculations earlier this year insofar as the endless bids underneath the indices, I still see the lack...

01May11:22 amEST

Pre-Fed Pause with a Splash of NVIDIA

NVDA strength is masking an awful lot of red in tech-land this morning, although that is nothing new with this narrow market. The larger issue is whether the market is waiting totally on the Fed, come Wednesday afternoon with the FOMC. We also have AAPL earnings Thursday before the jobs report Friday to kick off the new month with a bang,...

27Apr10:14 amEST

Facebook Face/Off

We have META (formerly Facebook) and other large cap techs leading the Nasdaq higher early on, while chips are soundly red and the likes of ARKK lag behind. Regarding META itself, I see $250 just above spot price to see if we have the makings of a new uptrend or, instead, the final pop before a new leg down commences.  Overall, my sense is that...

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