Trading Ideas
Showing articles 121 - 140 (5196 total)
23Mar10:34 amEST
Winter or Spring for Oil?
The calendar may have flipped to springtime, but with respect to crude oil's recent descending triangle bearish breakdown (seen below on USO ETF daily chart, which we previously highlighted in real-time both here and with Members) the issue is whether it is still just the beginning of winter for oil or not. $62/$63 was our key breakdown level,...
21Mar3:22 pmEST
The Dow: Invert the Problem, and Pattern
“Invert, always invert: Turn a situation or problem upside down. Look at it backward. What happens if all our plans go wrong? -Charlie Munger In front of the most uncertain FOMC's in quite some time tomorrow, insofar as what The Fed will actually do and say, or choose not to do and say, as well as the updated dot plots, equity bulls are...
21Mar10:14 amEST
Rates Should (Still) Be Headed Much Higher
*U.S. FEBRUARY EXISTING HOME SALES SOAR +14.5% TO 4.58 MILLION; EST. +5.0 TO 4.19M; PREV. 4.00M The above red-hot data which just hit the tape reinforces just how menacing inflation is this regime, despite how many bond bulls continues to harp on the banks and what they perceive to be a looming dovish Fed tomorrow and beyond. Even though the...
20Mar10:32 amEST
Even Swiss Bankers Have Lost Their Mystique
Swiss bankers, once regarded with a ton of mystique and for having a certain gravitas internationally, made headlines for the wrong reasons this weekend given the shotgun wedding deal between UBS and troubled CS, all while The Swiss National Bank backstopping. We also had the developed economy central banks around the world, including The Fed...
19Mar1:45 pmEST
Weekend Overview and Analysis 03/19/23 {Video}
The following video is a brief, condensed version of the full-length Weekend Video Strategy Session which I present each weekend to members of Market Chess Subscription Services. In the longer version, I offer tons of actionable trade ideas, educational content, and in-depth objective analysis across all markets. Please click here for more...
16Mar10:53 amEST
We Didn't Go to Stock Market Hell
...we went to Purgatory, my friend! Depending on your positioning, timeframe, bias, and temperament, it may very well seem like this stock market has gone to Dante's Hell. However, the reality is that an objective look at the major averages mostly suggests Purgatory for now--The Dow, S&P, and small caps are all below their 200-day moving...
15Mar9:38 amEST
The Medium is the Message
The prophetic Canadian philosopher Marshall McLuhan's famous phrase, “The medium is the message,” suggests that the medium through which we choose to communicate holds as much, if not more, value than the message itself. Considering McLuhan died the same year as I was born (1980), he was way ahead of his time with his foresight about the world...
14Mar12:14 pmEST
Stocks Up, Rates Up, Playing Rough
The action is pretty self-explanatory today, even though it may not make much sense as inflation stays high and The Fed probably will still have to hike next week. Stocks are much higher but so are rates, which is a divergence. And on the S&P 500 Index daily timeframe, updated below, we could easily be seeing a standard retracement to the...
13Mar2:30 pmEST
Danger, Curves Ahead
If you think the volatility we have seen of late has been a lot, I suspect you will need to brace yourself for even more intense turbulence going forward. As an example, we some have seasoned market pros expecting an imminent Fed rate CUT, while others are still in the camp The Fed should keep on hiking by 25 bps if not 50. Mind you, this is...
13Mar10:31 amEST
Sleeping By the Bear
Despite the KRE (regional bank sector ETF) down another whopping 16% this morning on the back of SBNY SIVB getting wiped out and a whole host of other regionals getting walloped, bulls are piling into AAPL and Treasuries (as well as some crypto) with the hopes of riding this out as being a banking issue contained to the regionals. While that...
12Mar10:21 amEST
Weekend Overview and Analysis 03/12/23 {Video}
The following video is a brief, condensed version of the full-length Weekend Video Strategy Session which I present each weekend to members of Market Chess Subscription Services. In the longer version, I offer tons of actionable trade ideas, educational content, and in-depth objective analysis across all markets. Please click here for more...
09Mar3:33 pmEST
...Until Something Breaks
The Fed can keep trying for a soft landing, and markets can keep rallying, "until something breaks," has been the rallying cry (literally) for bulls for a good while now. But with the SIVB crash today and banks overall leading lower, as well as the small caps in the IWM, the issue is relevant as to whether now something has, in fact, been...
09Mar10:17 amEST
Make an Example Out of Them
SVB Financial Group, below on the monthly chart, is getting walloped by more than 35% this morning after it launched a $1.75 billion share offering to try to salvage its balance sheet. The lender has many startups struggling from venture capital funding. Even though the broad market is staging a post-jobless claims bounce (it is fading...
08Mar11:53 amEST
More Cross-Currents Than the Port of Shanghai
Stocks are decidedly undecided through midday, as Powell's testimony today has a much more "data dependent" feel to it when he was specifically pressed on what The Fed would at the upcoming March FOMC. However, The Fed's mouthpiece, Nick Timiraos, did tweet out that barring cold data coming in The Fed could easily raise 50 bps later this month....
05Mar9:15 amEST
Weekend Overview and Analysis 03/05/23 {Video}
The following video is a brief, condensed version of the full-length Weekend Video Strategy Session which I present each weekend to members of Market Chess Subscription Services. In the longer version, I offer tons of actionable trade ideas, educational content, and in-depth objective analysis across all markets. Please click here for more...
03Mar10:06 amEST
It's Tough to Conquer Even Aging Empires
Bulls are feeling their oats again this morning, using the Bostic-led squeeze intraday yesterday afternoon to fuel a test of 4000 on the S&P 500 Index this morning. Rates on the 10-Year also dipped below 4% but are climbing back above that threshold as we speak. Without question, years and years of endless dip-buying being rewarded by easy...
02Mar10:53 amEST
It's the Rate of Rates That'll Give You the Blues
Eric Johnston and Katie Stockton, two of the sharper people on Wall Street these days, have been fairly steadily bearish on risk assets amid rising rates this cycle. But even they recently came out in CNBC interviews and seemed to be apprehensive about the idea of rates going much higher from here. But that's just it: The risk continues to be,...
01Mar10:52 amEST
It's Pretty; It's So Pretty
While equities toy with the 3940/3950 support zone on the S&P 500 Index, which of course coincides with the 200-day simple moving average, we have rates on the 10-Year Note hitting 4% once again this morning. Further, while the Dollar had a soft overnight session we have the greenback firming up as we speak. But turning back to rates, the...
28Feb11:06 amEST
Circus Price Discovery
In sports it is often said that a team eventually reflects its leader/coach in terms of personality, grit, temperament, or lack thereof. Perhaps the same can be said of markets and a given Fed Chair, especially given the prominent role of The Fed since the global financial crisis in 2008. With this in mind, markets sure seem to be reflecting...
27Feb3:17 pmEST
Poking, Probing, Backing, Filling...Burning!
Another gap up and eventual fade (so far into the final hour) is hallooing the mental toughness of just about every trader involved at this point. I specifically designed Market Chess Subscription Services as a reasonable alternative to the vast amount of services/chat rooms out there riding the emotional roller coaster of a market like this,...
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“chessNwine” has been a popular trader and financial blogger since 2009. His work has appeared in The Wall Street Journal Online Edition, Yahoo Finance, TheStreet.com, Josh Brown’s The Reformed Broker blog, AbnormalReturns.com, Barry Ritholtz’s The Big Picture blog, and the “Suggested” stream on Stocktwits.com.
