Trading Ideas

Showing articles 161 - 180 (5331 total)

18Aug2:26 pmEST

Too Many Blokes Looking to Buy

You may have noticed even fairly hardcore bears expect a bounce right here, as the natural inclination after quarters of constant melt-ups and snapback rallies can certainly distort expectations for a more normalized market.  However, my overall bearish view remains intact and I see no reason to become infatuated with possible very near-term...

17Aug1:26 pmEST

Consider Where the Real Pain Is

Just take a step back and consider, objectively, how many seasoned Wall Street veterans are bullish on bonds for any number of reasons. First and foremost, there are those who believe an imminent credit event is upon us, and therefore there will be a scramble into Treasuries as The Fed inevitably cuts rates to cope with the crisis. Others see...

16Aug11:49 amEST

We've Got Ourselves Some Twin Peaks

The much ballyhooed "July breakout" in stocks saw one of the most ostentatious displays of arrogance, hubris, and outright obnoxious behavior I can recall from bulls since early-2021. But even back then, early-2021 was much more about pressing for one more good "YOLO" trade as opposed to last month where the rallying cry centered around...

15Aug11:13 amEST

Easy There on Chasing Old Warren This Time Around

Headlines are swirling with the latest disclosure from Berkshire  that Buffett has bought into three homebuilders: DHI LEN and NVR. There are a few ways to look at these new bets, with perhaps them being hedges for the home remodeling businesses already owns which have been slowing date of late. After all, if new supply of homes is the issue,...

13Aug10:46 amEST

Weekend Overview and Analysis 08/13/23 {Video}

The following video is a brief, condensed version of the full-length Weekend Video Strategy Session which I present each weekend to members of Market Chess Subscription Services. In the longer version, I offer tons of actionable trade ideas, educational content, and in-depth objective analysis across all markets.  Please click here  for more...

11Aug1:20 pmEST

I Feel Sorry for Your Thesis

A clip of Jerome Powell giving testimony  on Capitol Hill has been making the rounds on Twitter of late. In the clip, he responds to a, "why does The Fed have a 2% inflation target, anyway?" question unimpressively, to say the least. If nothing else, it drives home the point about just how clueless these Central Bankers truly are and how...

10Aug1:24 pmEST

Summer Always Turns Into Hurricane Season

We live in a lower trust society nowadays, and perhaps that means a lower trust market, too. In fact, I am quite sure that is the case, where every bit of data, such as this morning's CPI print, and every market machination is met with a skeptical eye of conspiracy by a not-insignificant group of market players and pundits.  Such is life,...

09Aug11:28 amEST

I Wasn't Joking About the South Sea Bubble

I have been doing this for a long time now; Writing about markets in full public view on a daily basis for nearly fifteen years.  So when I pen a piece like I did here on July 31st of this year,  comparing the long-term parabolic charts of AAPL NVDA to the Dutch Tulip Mania, the South Sea Bubble, John Law and the Mississippi Stock Bubble, and...

08Aug11:07 amEST

We're Moving to a Higher Plane

Dare I say, the era of low volatility is over.  With volatility sellers as cocky as I have ever seen them, to dovetail mega cap tech bulls, the stage is set for a nasty volatility unwind higher. To be sure, this entire process has taken much longer than I ever anticipated. However, nothing has changed the underlying picture which is why I...

07Aug2:10 pmEST

Natty Gas: Maybe the Nine Millionth Time Will Be the Charm

Anyone who has traded natural gas over the years, be it the commodity futures contract themselves or the various ETFs, knows how uniquely tricky it can be insofar as various head-fakes and traps.  However, with the energy complex catching a strong bid during the middle portion of this summer, namely crude and gasoline futures, it is certainly...

06Aug10:53 amEST

Weekend Overview and Analysis 08/06/23 {Video}

The following video is a brief, condensed version of the full-length Weekend Video Strategy Session which I present each weekend to members of Market Chess Subscription Services. In the longer version, I offer tons of actionable trade ideas, educational content, and in-depth objective analysis across all markets.  Please click here  for more...

04Aug2:28 pmEST

Fitch's Get Stitches

While it may be tempting to praise the credit ratings agency, Fitch Ratings, for its recent downgrade of U.S. debt as being an admirable display of courage and integrity, I am willing to bet they had plenty of other reasons for making the move, too. Fitch, of course, got publicity from it. They also cement a ton of of ye-olde "covering one's...

03Aug1:27 pmEST

Bond Bulls Have it Wrong

The sheer duration and size of the consolidation Treasuries have been operating in, since last autumn when equities bottomed, almost assuredly means that when the inevitable directional break comes from said consolidation it will take many by surprise and oftentimes be far more violent in nature than most expect--Paul Tudor Jones has famous...

01Aug2:50 pmEST

Summertime Blues for the Lag

We have High Yield Corporate and Junk Bonds (HYG, JNK ETFs, respectively) gapping down hard from a cluster of recent sideways candlesticks denoting a possible bearish reversal down. Meanwhile, both rates and the U.S. Dollar are on the move higher, with rates on the 10-Year Note suddenly coming close to that key 4.1% level we have been noting...

31Jul10:36 amEST

We All Have it Coming, Kid

AAPL and NVDA multi-year charts, first below, versus the Mississippi Stock Bubble, the Dutch Tulip Mania, South Sea Bubble, and RCA stock from the Roaring Twenties into the Great Depression.  I recognize there are plenty of reasons circulating as to why this time is different and not a bubble.  However, I can assure you with a modicum of...

30Jul11:58 amEST

Weekend Overview and Analysis 07/30/23 {Video}

The following video is a brief, condensed version of the full-length Weekend Video Strategy Session which I present each weekend to members of Market Chess Subscription Services. In the longer version, I offer tons of actionable trade ideas, educational content, and in-depth objective analysis across all markets.  Please click here  for more...

28Jul1:01 pmEST

Relentless History

The bid in equities certainly seems relentless and is likely historic on many fronts, as we have been noting. As an example, the Bank of Japan yield curve control semi-"tweak" overnight was taken n stride, at least for now. And CNN's Fear & greed Index its till stubbornly in "Extreme Greed" territory.  However, if you have been following along...

27Jul12:31 pmEST

This Will Be the Spark

Putting to one side the omnipresent "Black Swan" risks of Japan's markets imploding, the Euro Zone going bust, China/Taiwan, North Korea, and of course Russian/Ukraine, the far more imminent risk as I see it is inflation surging back higher in the face of a Fed Chair staying stubbornly methodical and hellbent on not surprising markets.  But...

26Jul3:23 pmEST

Even the Price of Milquetoast is Rising

milque·toast noun: milquetoast; plural noun: milquetoasts a timid or feeble person. adjective: milquetoast feeble, insipid, or bland. "a soppy, milquetoast composer" Origin 1930s: from the name of a cartoon character, Caspar Milquetoast, created by H. T. Webster in 1924. It is hard to imagine a Fed Chair more timid in his...

25Jul11:25 amEST

Slowly But Surely, Starting to Come Together

The indices may be telling a different story for now, but sectors like the airlines (ETF below on the weekly timeframe) are indicating that inflationary pressures alongside a softening consumer are finally showing some wear and tear.  As you can see on JETS, the reversal we noted a few weeks ago after Delta's earnings continues to...

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