Trading Ideas

Showing articles 61 - 80 (4830 total)

06May11:34 amEST

Still Waters, Deep and Dangerous

The old English expression, "still waters run deep," often implies someone who seems rather unassuming on the outside but is quite capable of a great many things on the inside.  In Italian, this expression manifests itself as "‘l’acqua cheta rovina i ponti," which translates as, "still waters ruin bridges."  The Italian version has a far more...

05May3:28 pmEST

Operation: Live to Fight Another Day

I am 100% cash in my trading account here, tempted to take on some shorts overnight and press for a wipeout. That said, after my thinking that commodity stocks were ripe to extend a fresh rally clearly petered out rather quickly today, I am going to respect the wild indecision and daily price swings we are seeing now until we get more clarity...

05May10:16 amEST

Playing the Triangle Offense

In addition to the UGA gasoline ETF chart we have been teaching, both crude oil and wheat, on their respective ETF and fund charts, below, are sporting bullish-looking triangle consolidations in the context of prior uptrends.  In light of The Fed's pussyfooting around its "fight" against historically high inflation, the only two ways out of it...

04May3:20 pmEST

Be Careful with Your Birds, Jay

After sloshing around for the first forty minutes or so after the FOMC decision to raise by fifty basis points and commence a baby step QT program next month, stocks catapulted higher as Fed Chair Jay Powell in his presser decisively said a seventy-five basis point rate hike was not even under consideration.  While Powell also made...

04May10:53 amEST

Expect Head Fakes

With such a widely-hyped FOMC later today, at 2pm EST, one simply has to brace for the seemingly inevitable post-decision whipsaws and likely head fakes to come. Also note we have a Chair Powell presser starting at 2:30pm EST, which is sure to be market moving as he potentially drops hints at the size of the rate hike in the June FOMC, too.  In...

03May10:50 amEST

Feel Like a Curmudgeon

One area over the years I have learned where it is crucial to distinguish what sort of overall market regime you are in is when it comes to oversold potential rallies.  In bull markets, especially those where The Fed is launching bazookas full of QE and other assorted monetary goodies for markets, aggressively calling bottoms to oversold...

02May2:15 pmEST

Here's the Punch Line

Stocks are slipping a bit further down this afternoon after a session full of whacky swings up until this point, as we await the FOMC later this week.  Despite the giveback in equities, however, and in support of my morning blog post where I argued The Fed is likely continue down its fast-hike cycle in a hawkish manner, here's the punch line:...

02May9:55 amEST

The Exit Door for Treasuries is Growing Smaller By the Day

Amid swirling daily headlines regarding world wars, economic growth issues, politics, Buffett and Munger, social issues, and tons of other news, it can be easy to forget that the bond market is still flashing signs of a major regime change underway.  On the updated multi-decade chart for TNX, which represents rates (inverse the Treasury prices,...

01May10:08 amEST

Weekend Overview and Analysis 05/01/22 {Video}

The following video is a brief, condensed version of the full-length Weekend Video Strategy Session which I present each weekend to members of Market Chess Subscription Services. In the longer version, I offer tons of actionable trade ideas, educational content, and in-depth objective analysis across all markets.  Please click here  for more...

29Apr10:57 amEST

Bull Markets Climb a Wall of Worry; Bear Markets Slide Down a Slope of Hope

To quickly recap the action among Dow Jones Industrial Average components this week, MSFT and V both rallied after earnings. CAT is in an uptrend and bouncing off its 200-day moving average, green here. And AAPL is holding above $160 as we speak despite multiple bear raids to break it.  Despite all of that, the Dow itself, below on the DIA ETF...

27Apr4:19 pmEST

Stock Market Recap 04/27/22 {Video}

The following video is a brief, condensed version of the Stock Market Recap which I present each evening to members of Market Chess Subscription Services. In the longer version, I offer tons of actionable trade ideas, educational content, and in-depth objective analysis across all markets. If you enjoy my videos and blog posts, then please...

27Apr10:55 amEST

Stiff Resistance Requires a Stiff Drink

Despite some positive earnings reactions from CMG MSFT V, the market has struggled to build on opening gains. In fact, we flipped red earlier, although look to be back in the green on the indices as I write this.  Still, the QQQ ETF for the Nasdaq's top 100 stocks, below on the updated daily chart, shows the $322 actually acting as stiff...

26Apr2:55 pmEST

Testing the New World

While Alphabet (GOOGL) and Microsoft (MSFT) are, easily, the largest and most visible firms reporting earnings tonight after the bell, I would argue that Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc., (CMG) and Visa (V), respectively on their weekly charts, below, may very well offer better insight into the current debate playing out between bulls and bears as...

26Apr10:44 amEST

Sliding Down the Slope of Hope

A bull market will climb a wall of worry, while a bear market will slide a slippery slope of hope.” -Old Wall Street Proverb Yesterday's intraday reversal and subsequent upside bounce apparently spawned off more Elon Musk headlines looks to be fading fast today, as even Mr. Musk's flagship TSLA is off by more than 9% as I write this. ...

25Apr3:23 pmEST

Looking for Solid Support

While I have my doubts about tech and growth, with the large majority of those stocks and sectors below 200-day moving averages, the commodity complex holds much more of my interest into this pullback.  As you know, most commodity stocks are in uptrends, above 200-days, and the shakeout of late has seen a bunch of names like FCX, LAC, MP, all...

25Apr10:05 amEST

The S&P Has No Business Being Above 4,000 Right Now

CNBC's Bob Pisani was boasting about how loyal ARKK's shareholder base was this morning, as he inferred from the lack of shrinking shares outstanding that Cathie Wood's believers were firmly intact. While I agree that Ms. Wood has her loyal band of holders, it is important to note that Wall Street history tells us that strong bear markets, as...

24Apr9:41 amEST

Weekend Overview and Analysis 04/24/22 {Video}

The following video is a brief, condensed version of the full-length Weekend Video Strategy Session which I present each weekend to members of Market Chess Subscription Services. In the longer version, I offer tons of actionable trade ideas, educational content, and in-depth objective analysis across all markets.  Please click here  for more...

22Apr11:25 amEST

Head and Shoulders Tops Never Work, You Guys

...except when they do. Since the 2008 and even 2000-2002 comparisons by now are a bit played out, let us examine the summer swoon of 2011 (which actually lasted deep into autumn) for reference. The first chart, below, is the weekly chart for the S&P 500 Index from the year 2011, showing about a is month topping process yielding a sharp head...

21Apr3:28 pmEST

Check, Please?

If today does indeed mark a major bull trap, sending us much lower into the heart of earnings next week before the FOMC in two weeks, then tech/growth names like ARKK IWM QQQ TSLA should probably close at or near session lows today and immediately follow-through with a hard move down tomorrow into the weekend to effectively trap in longs and...

21Apr10:02 amEST

I Regret to Inform You

I regret to inform you that this cycle is still about rates, Powell, and inflation, overall, in spite of the day-to-day various headlines about Elon Musk, or just about anything else outside of a nuclear bomb.  Shares of Tesla gapping up 10% this morning after earnings has more than offset a sloppy close by tech yesterday into the...

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