Trading Ideas

Showing articles 61 - 80 (5331 total)

19Jan11:17 amEST

Too Much Money Chasing After Too Few Goods

It is tough to think of a more blinking red light about another surge higher in inflation than the fallout from the ongoing tensions in the Red Sea than the major supply disruptions, as seen on a recent CNBC.com headline , below.  On this options expiration Friday, stocks (especially tech, notably semiconductors, again) are ignoring any bad...

18Jan2:15 pmEST

Not Buying the AI Decadence

AMD reports earnings on January 29th, while NVDA reports out in February 28th. While I fully acknowledge the variance that earnings reports carry, I also view the action in AMD, especially, to be symptomatic of an "echo bubble" in chips based on the AI craze. We have seen as much in NVDA for a good while now.  But AMD recently has gone bananas...

17Jan11:39 amEST

Sorting Through Winter Battles

I was just forced to cut a gold miner long trade, as the (likely) threat of no imminent March rate cut seems to be pressuring gold more than I expected.  Of course, you know that I also am not expecting a rate cut, either, and have several other positions on to benefit from that, including an outright short on bonds as well as a bearish bet on...

16Jan11:13 amEST

Soft Landings Are for Loch Ness Monster Believers

My highest conviction view for 2024 remains that the now much-ballyhooed economic "soft landing" is in fact a mirage in the middle of the vast desert created by troubled monetary and fiscal policies coming home to roost, finally, after decades of can-kicking. While The Fed achieving that elusive soft landing, meaning inflation cools off...

15Jan10:19 amEST

Holiday Overview and Analysis 01/15/24 {Video}

The following video is a brief, condensed version of the full-length Weekend Video Strategy Session which I present each weekend to members of Market Chess Subscription Services. In the longer version, I offer tons of actionable trade ideas, educational content, and in-depth objective analysis across all markets.  Please click here  for more...

12Jan1:33 pmEST

Partying of the Red Sea

It may not be as biblical as the "parting of the Red Sea" by Moses, but some stocks are certainly partying due to the Red Sea tensions escalating today. Specifically with the U.S./British militaries striking back against  Iran-backed Yemen amid Red Sea tensions, we have uranium, oil tanker, and gold miner stocks out in front of a sluggish...

11Jan12:42 pmEST

Rate Cuts?! Rate Cuts?! I Just Hope We Can Get to 2%

This morning's hot CPI saw an initially muted reaction from stocks, followed by the expected dip-buy spot. This time around, however, the dip-buyers slipped up a bit as we have small caps leading the rest of the indices lower to the tune of 1.7% as I write this.  Without question, we saw immediate attempts from The Fed "whisperer," himself,...

10Jan11:04 amEST

Getting Spooky at Disney

In my weekend video for Members last Sunday I suggested that this was a "backloaded" week of events and headlines. Hence, stocks have mostly coasted up to this point, including this morning.  Overall, we have a mixed, meandering bounce going in equities this morning, as equities almost assuredly are waiting on the CPI (inflation reading)...

09Jan12:01 pmEST

Follow the Trail

One of the benefits of a commodity like natural gas coming out of the gate hot to start the new year is that so many new traders since the pandemic do not give a hoot, quite frankly, about anything other than options on growth stocks and crypto/NFTs.  Hence, when natty takes off, as it is again today, most will either gloss over it or even have...

08Jan11:24 amEST

Here's the Setup

Apple, as well as NVIDIA and the semiconductors at-large, is leading a tech relief rally so far this morning. We have a quintessential backloaded week of news and events, what with the CPI Thursday morning, then PPI on Friday alongside a plethora of large cap bank earnings to kick off a new season of reporting--Note that the likes of JPM have...

07Jan10:44 amEST

Weekend Overview and Analysis 01/07/24 {Video}

The following video is a brief, condensed version of the full-length Weekend Video Strategy Session which I present each weekend to members of Market Chess Subscription Services. In the longer version, I offer tons of actionable trade ideas, educational content, and in-depth objective analysis across all markets.  Please click here  for more...

05Jan11:25 amEST

I Still Think it Matters

As we noted here and with Members earlier this week, the 4725 area on the S&P 500 Index had turned into tough near-term price resistance.  And after this morning's hot jobs report, the initial selloff-turned-squeeze now seems to be slowing down right around that area, as seen and highlighted on the updated 10-minute S&P chart, below. ...

04Jan2:24 pmEST

Choose the Right Dip in 2024

One of my early observations about the tape this morning on the private Twitter feed for Members was that the market had the feel of coasting into tomorrow morning's jobs report.  In other words, after selling off for the first few days of 2024, after previously melting up to cap of 2023, a bit of a mixed, drifting session was likely in order...

03Jan10:25 amEST

Bears Should Come to Broad and Wall

“If Santa Claus should fail to call, bears may come to Broad and Wall.” -Stock Trader's Almanac's founder, Yale Hirsch Beyond representing one of those catchy one-liners folks in involved with markets love to say and hear, there is actual historical evidence that the new calendar year may spell trouble for bulls if the "Santa Rally" period...

02Jan10:30 amEST

Slow Your New Year's Roll

Just as folks quickly become bored or impatient with their new year's resolutions (e,g. to hit the gym more), it is quite easy to burn yourself out as a trader after the holiday season if you hit the ground running too quickly once the calendar flips.  Case in point: We are actually still in the midst of the "Santa Rally" period on Wall Street,...

29Dec1:47 pmEST

One Final Chart for 2023

Courtesy of Hi Mount Research, the chart below has been making the rounds on Twitter of late.  Here we can see that when we have excessive equity exposure, on a historical basis, by households, it leads to prolonged periods of sideways/down markets as a contrarian measure.  There can be a little of a lag before this kicks in, as we saw with the...

28Dec1:36 pmEST

Holiday Malaise

We are right smack in the middle of that awkward period where Christmas is clearly in the rear-view mirror, with leftovers having been exhausted and playing Christmas music seems out of place, but New Year's is still a few days ahead of us and the calendar has not yet flipped. It is still the holiday season, for all intents and purposes, but a...

27Dec3:22 pmEST

I Feel Sorry for Your Latte

Starbucks continues to act poorly into the final days of 2023, a surefire sign that fund managers have little interest in having the name on their books. For a good while now, we have noted the SBUX relative weakness both here and with Members.  Despite that, on the long-term SBUX quarterly chart, updated below, the major uptrend for years is...

26Dec2:02 pmEST

Putting Out a BOLO This Week

I am putting out a BOLO this week.  Used mostly by law enforcement, BOLO is an acronym that means "be on the lookout." And when we note that this final holiday week of the calendar year tends to, usually quite handily, be the lightest trading volume days of the year, we simply must be aware of trading stocks which normally are not considered...

21Dec12:16 pmEST

Let's Just Chalk it Up to Cultural Differences

The "Santa Rally" is an actual and seriously tracked phenomenon on Wall Street, not just some urban legend. It officially starts tomorrow, since the market is closed on Monday for Christmas. In a way, it almost seems like an entirely different market culture during the holidays.  Specifically, the Santa Rally is the last five trading days of...

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