Trading Ideas
Showing articles 101 - 120 (5559 total)
19Dec1:15 pmEST
The Immortal Bull Market
No, I am not referring to equities as the "immortal bull market." Instead, I am referring to the forty-plus year bull run in Treasuries, with rates falling since the early-1980s up until the pandemic. As you might imagine, that length of the bull run in the bond market lulled several generations of investors to sleep, even seasoned market...
18Dec3:42 pmEST
The Great Repricing
Despite the theory of reflexivity, the truth of the matter, when we get beyond all of the gaslighting and fudging of statistics, is that despite the market pricing in a perfect, soft landing, there never existed one in the real world in the first place. Markets were the primary beneficiary of the liquidity pumped into the system by our beloved...
17Dec2:41 pmEST
Polite Society Demands an RSVP to RSP
Many of you are likely aware, by now, of the market being on the cusp of its twelfth straight session of negative breadth on the S&P 500, meaning more declining than advancing underlying issues in the S&P. The fact that this is happening during the holiday season has many taken aback. However, given the extreme bifurcation, with names like...
16Dec12:53 pmEST
Because it is All So Hysterical
In front of what is widely-expected to be a "hawkish cut" of 25bps at the FOMC this Wednesday, which is basically Fed Chair Jay Powell's only move to try to save face as inflation roars back, Treasuries attempted a bounce this morning only to fade as I write this, with TLT in the red and rates on the 10-year sticky high. A hawkish cut,...
12Dec3:10 pmEST
How Could it Be OK if It's Askew?
I saw on X that @Barchart posted how low the "MOVE" Index has been sinking, which is basically the VIX of the bond market, illustrated below. It would seem there is much ado about nothing, according to the MOVE Index, despite rates pushing higher as Treasuries selloff after both yesterday's inline CPI print, a strong 10-Year auction, and then...
11Dec10:13 amEST
Ready to Go At a Moment's Notice
Natural gas is red-hot this morning, out in front of the commodity complex as the CPI print confirmed what we basically knew anyway: Inflation is reaccelerating into Fed rate cuts. Further, while it is certainly true that uranium and nuclear reactor plays are enticing on the long side, the more imminent, realistic play for AI energy is natural...
05Dec3:39 pmEST
Bull Market Don't Die of Old Age
The old Wall Street is adage is that bull markets, "do not die of old age," meaning it is impossible to put an expiration date on a bull run merely because it has already rallied for many years. That said, bull markets most certainly do die when the final marginal buyer has been exhausted and the market is essentially all "bought up" with...
04Dec3:10 pmEST
Political Trades Require Cunning Instincts
One phenomenon I have noticed over the decades with each incoming Presidential Administration has been the temptation to find the new President trade. With Obama, it was green energy, for example. But those trades rarely have staying power. In fact, the opposite usually happens, with sectors you expect to lead, lagging, and sectors you expect...
03Dec3:37 pmEST
Seeing the Oil Barrel Half Full Today
Crude oil is up nicely today while natural gas is taking a shellacking. From my perch it is instructive to see natural gas-related stocks, like Northern Oil (below on the updated daily chart) basically ignore the natty selloff and remain either pushing higher or tightening up for fresh consolidations, such as with CTRA. Going forward, we still...
02Dec2:31 pmEST
SMCI's One-Person Committee is Part of a Team
Courtesy of @unusual_whales on X: Super Micro Computer, $SMCI, announced the completion of a review by an independent Special Committee, which consisted of only one person, and which found no evidence of misconduct or fraud by the company’s management or Board. As ridiculous as a one-person "Special Committee" sounds, especially for...
29Nov9:07 amEST
Morning Prep 11/29/24 {Video}
The following video is an example of the types of Morning Prep Videos I present to Members of the Market Chess Subscription Services on a daily basis. Please click here for more details about joining to access these videos regularly, as well as plenty of other features.
26Nov3:09 pmEST
Saylor is Due for Rough Seas
The broad market continues to sleepwalk sideways-to-higher on a daily basis as we zoom towards the holiday season. Tomorrow is one of the most traveled days of the years (apparently the busiest day of travel each year is the Sunday after Thanksgiving), but we do have a deluge of data tomorrow morning which could move markets. That said, the...
25Nov2:53 pmEST
Beset By Bessent, And Other Political Trades
I have traded through enough presidential cycles to know that it is not just Trump, and it is not just Republicans--Every single new administration is full of guesswork on Wall Street as to the next "hot trade" based on the incoming President. However, more often than not those trades wind up being short-lived, whether it be Obama and clean...
21Nov1:46 pmEST
A Sippy Cup of Milk to Start
Seeing as I still view most commodities as being their " sippy cup of milk" stage as we embark on entrenched inflation and slowing economic growth in the coming years, the recent hard shakeouts in the precious metals and miners did not come as much of a surprise. Instead, what is more important going forward is that we see actual evidence of...
20Nov1:24 pmEST
The Trouble with Retail is That It's Full of Stocks
On the back of the Lowe's earnings selloff we noted yesterday we now have shares of Target getting body slammed by more this 22% as I write this after its own report this morning. Once again, all roads in equities lead to NVDA earnings tonight, as it is the largest firm by market cap in the world (over $3.5 trillion) and the premier...
19Nov3:22 pmEST
A Market So High it Ignores the Lowe's
The market still seems to be of the mind to rally the narrow pocket of growth stocks into NVDA's earnings tomorrow evening, with the likes of MSTR PLTR SMCI and the aforementioned NVDA all snapping back today. As usual, this market is also ignoring the likes of Lowe's reporting a year over year drop in earnings, with do-it-yourself demand for...
FOLLOW chessNwine
MARKET CHESS SUBSCRIPTION SERVICES
Full-Length Video Recaps & Strategy Sessions
Private Twitter Feed Access
Custom Videos Tailored to You
chessNwine HAS BEEN SEEN ON
Top Pages
About
“chessNwine” has been a popular trader and financial blogger since 2009. His work has appeared in The Wall Street Journal Online Edition, Yahoo Finance, TheStreet.com, Josh Brown’s The Reformed Broker blog, AbnormalReturns.com, Barry Ritholtz’s The Big Picture blog, and the “Suggested” stream on Stocktwits.com.
