Trading Ideas
Showing articles 101 - 120 (5567 total)
08Jan1:19 pmEST
The Last Hurrah
The November through mid-December surge in retail stocks, seen below on the XRT sector ETF daily chart, certainly took me by surprise. As you can see, however, that rally has now been mostly erased. Further, long-term retail laggards like DG DLTR FL KSS NKE, among many others in the sector, continue to flounder. Overall, the XRT head and...
07Jan1:19 pmEST
Beating You to the Punch
With 2025 underway it is a good idea to look at post-election year seasonality. Courtesy of @AlmanacTrader on X, below, we can see the 1949-2023 data set for all post-election year patterns in the S&P 500 Index. Clearly, the black and red lines are most relevant, with the incumbent party losing. As you can see February is a uniquely weak...
06Jan12:20 pmEST
I am a Nuclear Landman
Natural gas and nuclear are red-hot not just today but also of late, overall. We have been focused on these two groups, both the commodity and underlying stocks, with Members. And now we have the nuclear reactor plays flashing strong signs of staging fresh legs higher, be it GEV NNE OKLO SMR, just to name a few. Meanwhile, natural gas is...
02Jan1:13 pmEST
Pick a Side, Any Side
If the first trading session of 2025, so far, is any indication of what is to come this year we are in for a doozy of a tape. As of this early-afternoon, we have seen a plethora of whipsaws, squeezes, fades, before the market finally sold off aggressively during the New York lunch hour. Granted, we are still technically within the "Santa Rally"...
30Dec2:08 pmEST
A Forever Home on the Range
It has been tough for me to be steadfastly bullish on much within equities for a good while, given the bifurcation of the asset classes containing many classical elements of a mania. However, we have been consistently bullish in recent quarters on the prospects of natural gas and nuclear names emerging. The key point there is that both of these...
26Dec1:27 pmEST
If I Told You This, Would You Believe Me?
September 16th, 2024. That is the last time that shares of Reddit, seen below on the updated daily chart, tested their 20-day simple moving average (orange line). The 20-day moving average is a short-term reference point for swing readers. As an example, NVIDIA has not tested its 200-day moving average since January 2023, but the 200-day is...
23Dec3:38 pmEST
Don't Forget About the Comstock Loads
Slow session today to kick off the next two weeks of abbreviated holiday trading. Wirth Christmas Day and New Year's Day both falling on each of the next two Wednesdays, right smack in the middle of the week, it would not surprise me to see most market players call it a year. For those hanging around, natural gas has quietly been improving,...
19Dec1:15 pmEST
The Immortal Bull Market
No, I am not referring to equities as the "immortal bull market." Instead, I am referring to the forty-plus year bull run in Treasuries, with rates falling since the early-1980s up until the pandemic. As you might imagine, that length of the bull run in the bond market lulled several generations of investors to sleep, even seasoned market...
18Dec3:42 pmEST
The Great Repricing
Despite the theory of reflexivity, the truth of the matter, when we get beyond all of the gaslighting and fudging of statistics, is that despite the market pricing in a perfect, soft landing, there never existed one in the real world in the first place. Markets were the primary beneficiary of the liquidity pumped into the system by our beloved...
17Dec2:41 pmEST
Polite Society Demands an RSVP to RSP
Many of you are likely aware, by now, of the market being on the cusp of its twelfth straight session of negative breadth on the S&P 500, meaning more declining than advancing underlying issues in the S&P. The fact that this is happening during the holiday season has many taken aback. However, given the extreme bifurcation, with names like...
16Dec12:53 pmEST
Because it is All So Hysterical
In front of what is widely-expected to be a "hawkish cut" of 25bps at the FOMC this Wednesday, which is basically Fed Chair Jay Powell's only move to try to save face as inflation roars back, Treasuries attempted a bounce this morning only to fade as I write this, with TLT in the red and rates on the 10-year sticky high. A hawkish cut,...
12Dec3:10 pmEST
How Could it Be OK if It's Askew?
I saw on X that @Barchart posted how low the "MOVE" Index has been sinking, which is basically the VIX of the bond market, illustrated below. It would seem there is much ado about nothing, according to the MOVE Index, despite rates pushing higher as Treasuries selloff after both yesterday's inline CPI print, a strong 10-Year auction, and then...
11Dec10:13 amEST
Ready to Go At a Moment's Notice
Natural gas is red-hot this morning, out in front of the commodity complex as the CPI print confirmed what we basically knew anyway: Inflation is reaccelerating into Fed rate cuts. Further, while it is certainly true that uranium and nuclear reactor plays are enticing on the long side, the more imminent, realistic play for AI energy is natural...
05Dec3:39 pmEST
Bull Market Don't Die of Old Age
The old Wall Street is adage is that bull markets, "do not die of old age," meaning it is impossible to put an expiration date on a bull run merely because it has already rallied for many years. That said, bull markets most certainly do die when the final marginal buyer has been exhausted and the market is essentially all "bought up" with...
04Dec3:10 pmEST
Political Trades Require Cunning Instincts
One phenomenon I have noticed over the decades with each incoming Presidential Administration has been the temptation to find the new President trade. With Obama, it was green energy, for example. But those trades rarely have staying power. In fact, the opposite usually happens, with sectors you expect to lead, lagging, and sectors you expect...
03Dec3:37 pmEST
Seeing the Oil Barrel Half Full Today
Crude oil is up nicely today while natural gas is taking a shellacking. From my perch it is instructive to see natural gas-related stocks, like Northern Oil (below on the updated daily chart) basically ignore the natty selloff and remain either pushing higher or tightening up for fresh consolidations, such as with CTRA. Going forward, we still...
FOLLOW chessNwine
MARKET CHESS SUBSCRIPTION SERVICES
Full-Length Video Recaps & Strategy Sessions
Private Twitter Feed Access
Custom Videos Tailored to You
chessNwine HAS BEEN SEEN ON
Top Pages
About
“chessNwine” has been a popular trader and financial blogger since 2009. His work has appeared in The Wall Street Journal Online Edition, Yahoo Finance, TheStreet.com, Josh Brown’s The Reformed Broker blog, AbnormalReturns.com, Barry Ritholtz’s The Big Picture blog, and the “Suggested” stream on Stocktwits.com.
