Trading Ideas

Showing articles 81 - 100 (5301 total)

03Nov12:34 pmEST

My Vision Differs From Yours

It has been an epic squeeze-fest this week, with the badly beaten-down small caps getting plenty of action to the upside.  As unpopular as it may feel and be, part of my job description is often relaying objecting analysis in the face of overwhelming emotions of any given moment in the market. What that means is many folks will have a love/hate...

02Nov2:17 pmEST

Plenty of Hot Tips Out There

Whether it concerns seasonality, the Treasury's recent refunding announcement, The Fed being done hiking, Israeli/Hamas, or anything for that matter we have plenty of hot tips circulating as to why it will all be bullish for markets. And with equities rallying every single day this week bulls are back to feeling their oats.  All of this is...

01Nov3:08 pmEST

A Dreary Landing, One Way or the Other

On this post-FOMC/Powell presser squeeze, it appears as though the S&P 500 Index, below on the updated daily chart, has a rendezvous with its 200-day simple moving average (yellow line, arrow), testing it from the underside. The Nasdaq is the leader of today's move, while small caps lag behind. While the market cheers Powell playing both sides...

31Oct3:04 pmEST

They Did it All for the Glory of Love

While equities here stateside are mostly ignoring the Dollar/Yen surging past 151 today, we still have a busy week ahead of us with the FOMC tomorrow, AAPL earnings Thursday evening, followed by the jobs report on Friday.  On that note, did the Bank of Japan really tweak their infamous Yield Curve Control policy out of love? I see yet another...

30Oct1:14 pmEST

Well, I Got Some Moves I Can Make Here

Bollinger Bands, the eponymous technical indicator named after its creator, John Bollinger, are "pinching" on the monthly chart for Cathie Wood's ARKK ETF, seen below. For most of this year, I have held SARK, a bear ETF for ARKK, with Members in the service. It is now one of my best performing positions in a year with tons of outliers for me. ...

29Oct10:47 amEST

Weekend Overview and Analysis 10/29/23 {Video}

The following video is a brief, condensed version of the full-length Weekend Video Strategy Session which I present each weekend to members of Market Chess Subscription Services. In the longer version, I offer tons of actionable trade ideas, educational content, and in-depth objective analysis across all markets.  Please click here  for more...

26Oct12:24 pmEST

Here's the Punchline: The Selling is Still Orderly!

With the Nasdaq Composite Index finally (finally!) losing its 200-day simple moving average today, at least so far, every single stock index is below its 200-day m.a.. This circumstance typically begets more selling, not unlike on the way up the buying led to more buying which is a consequences of system/automated trading strategies.  That...

24Oct11:46 amEST

Remember Me: Benny Blanco from the Bank?

Much like Benny Blanco from the Bronx , this failed bounce in the regional banking sector ETF (KRE, daily chart, below) looks to have come home to roost for bulls.  Specifically, with all that is going on in the world, and in other markets besides equities, it has been quite easy to assume the worst is over for the vulnerable regional banks....

23Oct2:56 pmEST

Some Days it Rains

A mixed, slow tape in front of what should be a week which picks up speed into some major earnings reports has me taking care of some personal business today more than anything else.  In light of the Major League Baseball playoffs in full swing, I am reminded of the great film, Bull Durham (1988), and to paraphrase the quote, "Some days you...

22Oct12:19 pmEST

Weekend Overview and Analysis 10/22/23 {Video}

The following video is a brief, condensed version of the full-length Weekend Video Strategy Session which I present each weekend to members of Market Chess Subscription Services. In the longer version, I offer tons of actionable trade ideas, educational content, and in-depth objective analysis across all markets.  Please click here  for more...

20Oct11:19 amEST

The Granddaddy of Them All

The big Wilshire 5000 Index, below on its daily timeframe, tracks every single stock traded in America, weighted by market cap. After a bounce off the 200-day simple moving average (yellow line) earlier this bounce, we are on track to see the Wilshire close back below the 200-day into the weekend on this options expiration Friday.  This is all...

19Oct10:35 amEST

The Paper Chase

I once had a law professor who was rather acerbic and mercurial. He intentionally had his students buy a certain casebook of common law cases which he despised so that he could teach "against it" all semester. His rationale was that he found it quite boring to use a casebook which contained court decisions he mostly agreed--That is how much he...

18Oct12:48 pmEST

Big Tree Fall Hard, Right?

We have some sharp reversals off yesterday's small cap-led rally taking place so far today, as the toll of sticky high rates and and now oil prices climbing seems to be manifesting itself on even the most complacent segments of equities.  As I write this, small caps in the IWM, China internet names in the KWEB ETF, the mid-caps in the MDY,...

17Oct11:11 amEST

Not Such Golden Slacks This Time Around

Goldman Sachs (sometimes known as "Golden Slacks," as one its kinder nicknames compared to others) the iconic banking house, reported a top line earnings beat this morning on strong bond trading numbers.  As you can see on the daily chart, however, Goldman is trading lower. More importantly, the overall chart remains bearish and looks much more...

16Oct11:50 amEST

Trapped in a Prison Market

Imagine, if you would, that you had taken a nap in July 2018. You did not wake up until this morning to read this blog post. During that nap, the IWM (ETF for small cap stocks in the Russell 2000 Index) has made no net, or overall, progress and is trading at the same levels it was some five years and three months ago.  On a shorter-term...

13Oct12:55 pmEST

Satanic Black Magic Into the Weekend

The easiest thing to do right now is throw a Paulie Walnuts-type tantrum  and decry today's pop in the VIX as merely overzealous hedging into the weekend in light of the Israel/Hamas escalation, bound to lead to a VIX collapse next week.  My take, as you might imagine, is a bit different: The VIX has already been working on a higher base for...

12Oct11:29 amEST

White Collar Tastes; Blue Collar Grind

After a hot CPI print this morning we have some incredibly familiar Nasdaq-versus-the-world price action playing out as we speak. At the risk of being redundant regarding that glaring divergences across a structurally weak equities (and credit) market, I would much rather focus this morning on actionable trade ideas: The nitty-gritty blue...

11Oct12:12 pmEST

Shaken and Stirred, Yet Unperturbed

An amorphous, overall trend-less equities market for months has been the main takeaway for swing traders, lending itself to natural frustration. Sure, the bond market has been selling off, and we have been on top of that with Members, trimming a TBT play into the recent pop in rates before the cooling off this week.  However, when it comes to...

10Oct12:15 pmEST

At the End of the Day

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq, respectively below on their daily charts, have easily been the two strongest indices of late, as virtually all other indices are below their own 200-day moving averages.  But not the S&P and Nasdaq. Hence, instead of cherry-picking the weaklings, let us focus on these two.  Simply put, at the end of the day (or perhaps...

09Oct10:35 amEST

Isn't That Just Like a Commodity Market?

Over the weekend Israel declared war following a surprise attack from Hamas. It is a rather convenient fact, indeed, that crude oil had been sharply pulling back for about the last week and a half following a prior, steep rally, rending this gap up perhaps just the start of a new move higher rather than a typical sell-the-news setup. Commodity...

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