Trading Ideas

Showing articles 81 - 100 (4830 total)

20Apr2:41 pmEST

I'm Still Short ARKK, and My Bet is Complacency Gets Punished

Using the SARK bearish ETF (via a long position inside Market Chess Subscription Services, just above $51.20 entry) as a proxy to go short ARKK, Cathie Wood's flagship ETF housing a plethora of incredibly rich growth and speculative stocks, I continue to press for ARK to revisit its COVID crash lows in the coming weeks and months.  While that...

19Apr3:34 pmEST

Land of the Setting Sun

With volume running light on today's big rally in equities, some of other non-confirming aspects are: Rates on the 10-Year Note pushing higher yet, JNK red/flat most of the day, mortgage REITs sharply lower, and the general "buy the rumor, sell the news" vibe the tape is giving off as we head into IBM NFLX earnings tonight, then a slew of major...

18Apr3:37 pmEST

I Don't Mind Being "That Guy"

Part of my job, in my quest to deliver value to you, the reader, often involves noting aspects of markets and market players which are inconvenient truths. And, of course, those times where I am wrong it serves as a double-whammy of sorts, where my upsetting of the apple cart proves to be null and void analysis.  Having said that, I continue to...

18Apr10:42 amEST

Clown Show Action off the Open

Amid the Elon Must/TWTR saga, Tesla squeezed up off a red open in front of earnings later this week. On that note, Netflix tomorrow evening gets us into the heart of major tech earnings season, which no doubt will be a test for this market before the next FOMC in the first week of May.  However, it is not a broad-based tech/growth party this...

17Apr5:45 amEST

Weekend Overview and Analysis 04/17/22 {Video}

The following video is a brief, condensed version of the full-length Weekend Video Strategy Session which I present each weekend to members of Market Chess Subscription Services. In the longer version, I offer tons of actionable trade ideas, educational content, and in-depth objective analysis across all markets.  Please click here  for more...

14Apr11:15 amEST

Here's the Real Battle This Earnings Season

With markets closed tomorrow for Good Friday, stocks are mixed this morning as bottom-callers in Treasuries got caught into another spike in rates.  As you might expect, the Nasdaq and many growth issues are not thrilled with rates pushing higher yet as TLT sells off further.  However, from my vantage point the true battle awaits us all in the...

13Apr3:05 pmEST

No Big Deal, Just Eleven Year Highs

The XME ETF, below on its monthly chart, is printing levels not seen since August 2011 today, as coals, steels, and other materials housed in the ETF continue to get bid. As you can see, the way we got here is also relevant: Price broke out the last three months from a prior, tight base, which seems to reinforce the notion of an impressive...

13Apr10:28 amEST

Navigating the Bond Bear Landscape

Historically hot PPI and JPM earnings selloff be darned, this market looks to be attached at the hip to the happenings in Treasuries.  With rates on the 10-Year Note easing a bit off widely-discussed overbought conditions, TLT (ETF for Treasuries' prices, inverse to rates) illustrates as much with a bounce from oversold conditions, seen on the...

12Apr3:10 pmEST

How Do We Spell This Relief Rally? D-R-U-N-K

While I try to avoid the alarmist, sensationalist type of market analysis, the stark historical reality is that markets which act poorly and fail to rally when they *should* (i.e., this morning after the much ballyhooed used car sales prices fell) become uniquely dangerous and vulnerable to wiping out much lower.  I am becoming increasingly...

12Apr10:58 amEST

Let's All Trust Used Car Salesmen Now

Despite the headline that inflation rose at fastest pace since 1981 in March as the CPI (consumer price index) jumped 8.5% annually, markets initially looked beyond that and found mustard seeds in the idea that used car prices dropped 3.8% (even if 35% higher than last year).  The drop in used car prices was then used as evidence that inflation...

11Apr3:36 pmEST

Which Way for Silver?

As rates keep pushing higher, we had an impressive opening pop in the precious metals only to see the usual fade.  The good news for bulls is that they seem to be closing well here. Headed into the CPI print tomorrow morning, another big test looms for the metals. But the SLV daily chart, below, continues to look ripe for a fresh breakout...

11Apr10:22 amEST

It's Winning Time for Wheat

While oil fumbles and stumbles through what could still easily be a bullish consolidation, other commodities are back at it and threatening imminent, fresh breakouts higher amid the tech selloff.  Wheat is my favorite at the moment, given the pristine weekly chart bull flag for the commodity's ETN, highlighted below. It has now been a little...

10Apr9:10 amEST

Weekend Overview and Analysis 04/10/22 {Video}

The following video is a brief, condensed version of the full-length Weekend Video Strategy Session which I present each weekend to members of Market Chess Subscription Services. In the longer version, I offer tons of actionable trade ideas, educational content, and in-depth objective analysis across all markets.  Please click here  for more...

08Apr10:39 amEST

It's Time to Turn the Amen Corner

While it certainly turned out to be a choppy final few weeks of March for precious miners, there are two bullish aspects about the complex worth noting right now: 1) Very few market players and pundits are gung-ho bullish on the group, for obvious reason--The precious miners have been heartbreakers for a good while now. It is simply too easy to...

07Apr9:09 amEST

Morning Prep 04/07/22 {Video}

The following video is an example of the types of Morning Prep Videos I present to Members of the Market Chess Subscription Services on a daily basis.  Please click here for more details about joining to access these videos regularly, as well as plenty of other features.

06Apr3:49 pmEST

Recessionary Action

Many are debating the yield curve inversion and its merits, and we can do that indefinitely.  But objectively analyzing the market's price action of late points to equities shifting to a recessionary view--Although the restaurants, airports, casinos, hotels, may all be packed in your hood, the issue is where the economic is 6-9 months from now...

06Apr10:30 amEST

Are You an International Harvester?

Stocks are likely coming around to the idea that yesterday's talk about imminent quantitative tightening by Lael Brainard was part of a carefully crafted strategy by The Fed in front of both today's FOMC Minutes (from the last Fed Meeting), as well as headed into the next FOMC in the first few days of May.  The reason why The Fed is so careful...

05Apr3:51 pmEST

REM - Losing Your Religion in Housing

According to Mortgage News Daily, the average rate on the popular 30-year fixed mortgage just crossed 5%, now standing at 5.02%. This ranks among the highest in the last eleven years or so. And if you believe that the housing market has indeed become an integral part of The Fed's "wealth effect" strategy dating back to Greenspan, then this...

05Apr11:27 amEST

Folks: The Real Enemy is Shrinkage

Stocks endured an abrupt and sharp downswing off the open this morning as news hit the tape that noted prior dove and Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard said that  The Fed could start reducing its balance sheet as soon as May and would be doing so at “a rapid pace.” Even more than rate hikes, the pace of them and how substantial each one...

04Apr10:24 amEST

You Can't Take Your Eyes Off This Level

On the IWM, ETF for the small cap-led Russell 2000 Index, the $208 level has been significant dating back roughly fifteen months at this point. In real-time, we discussed that level both here and with Members extensively. And when $208 fell back in January, we took it as a major breakdown to be respected until further notice for a significant...

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