Trading Ideas
Showing articles 21 - 40 (5425 total)
18Sep3:18 pmEST
The Bond Traders Speaketh
Stocks are whipping around, having faded well off session highs amid a volatile 50-bps cut Fed Day. However, we still have the final hour to get through and tomorrow's action after a night for markets to sleep on the surprising decision. In the meantime, Treasuries are selling the news, seen below on the TLT ETF daily chart. I have been out of...
17Sep3:01 pmEST
There Are Only Fed Traders in This Room!
As much as some folks try to play it cool and act like they are above noticing what The Fed is doing, the fact remains in this post-2008 era of central banking that The Fed is the main game in town. Others often attempt to advance intelligent-sounding arguments about how The Fed is vastly overrated and really does not matter all that much to...
16Sep11:35 amEST
One Market's Elevation is Another's Runway
Precious miners are pausing at their mid-July highs this morning, which is apparent when one views the daily charts for GDX and GDXJ. On the longer-term timeframes, such as the GDXJ (ETF for junior gold miners) weekly, below, we can see this $49 area stretches back over ten years as being a significant price area. The net result of all of this...
11Sep12:39 pmEST
Once Again, the Price Swings ARE the Message
The continued intraday wild price swings across this market are effectively making mincemeat out of just about all traders of late, as one minute bears are celebrating and the next bulls are foaming at the mouth for a squeeze to new highs...only to see the market come right back down and start the whole process over again. As we noted inside...
10Sep12:48 pmEST
Dimons Are Not Forever
On the back of rate cuts hopes we have seen banks melting up since the August 5th lows even more than other sectors did in that time. JPMorgan, in particular, with its highly visible CEO Jamie Dimon, was right at the forefront. In fact, inside the service with Members we noted that the $215 level on JPM's chart seemed like a good spot to see...
05Sep1:25 pmEST
Face/Off for the Head/Off
The Nasdaq Composite Index, updated below on the daily chart, now has a high quality setup to rug-pull a sizable portion of market participants. Specifically, we have competing head and shoulders patterns, each highlighted below. The top one is, of course, a bearish head and shoulders top setup. And with the recent rallies, selloffs, backing...
04Sep1:23 pmEST
Then You've Already Lost
"If you must resort to violence, then you've already lost." -John Connor (Sean Connery), Rising Sun (1993). Don't look now, but the Japanese Yen currency is strengthening again. As we saw (briefly) in early-August, when the Yen moves higher it pressures the much-ballyhooed "Yen carry trade," where speculators have cheaply borrowed the...
29Aug2:42 pmEST
Surviving the Game
An afternoon fade is seeing the Nasdaq turn red as I write this, with the 17,780 level we noted here and with Members on the Nasdaq Composite Index asserting itself as firm resistance today. NVDA is currently down 6%, GOOGL is a dud again, yet bulls were as cocky as I can recall earlier today on the prospect of an unstoppable freight train of...
27Aug2:10 pmEST
What if Inflation is Bottoming, Not Topping?
Even though I have been out of my bond short since July I remain focused on the long-term inflationary dynamics still very much in play. The rate of inflation has slowed but that differs greatly than us experiencing deflation (Just go to the grocery store, pay your healthcare bill, various insurance costs, etc., for reference). That said, what...
26Aug11:57 amEST
Predators and Prey
The chart, below, has been making the rounds on social media of late. I saw Don Johnson (@DonMiami3), an economist, tweet it out previously. As you can see, retail investors were galvanized by the selloff at the beginning of the month and, instead of feeling fear or panic, saw dollar signs instead and bought stocks hand over fist. While that...
22Aug3:34 pmEST
I'm Sorry Ms. Jackson Hole, The Jobs Numbers Are Not for Real
The front-running of major events has been one of the hallmarks of this market for a while now, with inside information rumored to be circulating to the well-connected in a timely manner. The simple fact is that we will probably never know for sure whether that is the case. And, frankly, that is life on Wall Street and has been for over a...
21Aug2:52 pmEST
The Longest Game
Even with a firm VIX and strong Yen today, stocks are a bit higher today as I write this on the back of both massive BLS job revisions lower plus dovish Fed Minutes, both of which would seem to give The Fed ample cover to cut rates in September. However, those traders who either traded through or studied initial rate cuts, like 2007, know that...
20Aug2:12 pmEST
Who Does Number Two Work For?
With a little over one week until NVIDIA reports earnings, it is completely understandable that the buildup to it will continue to be dramatic. After all, we are talking about the largest, most prominent stock at the epicenter of the Nasdaq/AI/semiconductor melt-ups all rolled into on ticker. We also have a high profile, black leather...
15Aug12:26 pmEST
Jump Around
With a week to go before the annual central banking conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, gets underway from August 22-24, markets are jumping higher off strong retail sales this morning. Since the beginning of last week's sizable gap down we have seen all minor potential resistance areas prove futile, as bulls reverted to the old playbook of...
13Aug11:40 amEST
Speak of the (Venti) Devil
In yesterday's note we discussed waiting for a rally in Starbucks before looking to attack the short side again potentially into 2025. Consistent with this market, however, everything--and I mean everything--seems to get pulled forward on the bull side. Specifically, Starbucks just effectively plucked Chipotle's highly acclaimed CEO . ...
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“chessNwine” has been a popular trader and financial blogger since 2009. His work has appeared in The Wall Street Journal Online Edition, Yahoo Finance, TheStreet.com, Josh Brown’s The Reformed Broker blog, AbnormalReturns.com, Barry Ritholtz’s The Big Picture blog, and the “Suggested” stream on Stocktwits.com.
