Trading Ideas
Showing articles 21 - 40 (5507 total)
13Feb1:42 pmEST
Do We Need Taiwan or Not?
Despite some notable weak spots underneath the surface today, such as transports, Microsoft (again), and Amazon, just to name a few, stocks are broadly higher after shrugging off a hot PPI print this morning. A headline crossed earlier that Trump may delay tariffs for another month or two, which seems to have assuaged fears of imminent negative...
12Feb1:33 pmEST
Denial Ain't Just a River in D.C.
Even with an undeniably red-hot CPI print this morning, plenty of market pundits and players, not to mention central bankers, remain reticent to admit that inflation is actually back on the rise. These folks are sticking to their guns regarding the notion inflation has already "come down significantly," and now we are simply enduing a bumpy...
11Feb1:22 pmEST
I'd Rather Have Low and Slow Cooking Than Low and Slow Markets
We have another session of generally low volume and generally slow-paced price action. True, Powell gave the first of this two-day Congressional semi-annual testimony. But the CPI inflation print tomorrow morning still seems like it is shaping up as a the key event of the week, especially given Powell's penchant for lawyerly double-speak in...
10Feb1:28 pmEST
More Tariffs While the Market Spins Its Wheels
News of President Trump saying he will impose a 25% tariff on aluminum and steel imports has the domestic materials plays mostly higher today. Larger names like AA NUE X are getting attention. But smaller names like Chicago-based Ryerson, below on its daily chart, ought not be overlooked. Compared to other smaller domestic materials plays like...
03Feb1:35 pmEST
Don't Forget About the Real Inflation Gauge
The period immediately after the Super Bowl, which begins this Sunday evening, is assuredly the dead period of winter, where the holidays and the freshness of the winter season from late-last year are a distant memory, but the anticipation of spring is still too far away to truly get excited. Thus, one can be forgiven for not thinking much...
30Jan1:04 pmEST
Catalysts Versus Excuses
When you see a high, tight bull flag, especially on a long-term timeframe like the GLD ETF (for gold metal) monthly chart, first below, uncoil higher with aggression it is almost assuredly a sign of extreme bullishness given the urgency of buyers to pounce on any and all long-term pauses. We have been highlighting this flag for a while now,...
29Jan10:47 amEST
Cutting? Seriously, Cutting?
At the risk of launching a Jim Mora rant , I will simply flag the DBA ETF (for a basket of soft commodities) weekly chart, second below, challenging ten-year highs from December 2024 here as softs stage a resurgence in early-2025. The first graph, below, shows the top-weighted components of DBA--Ask yourself how significant each one of these...
23Jan3:27 pmEST
Don't Underestimate Japan
Lost in the shuffle of NFLX earnings and Trump's first few days in office for his second terms with endless headlines and sound bites is the Bank of Japan meeting this evening. Markets are actually almost fully pricing in a rate hike, the likes of which we have not seen since last summer when we saw a violent but ephemeral spike in the VIX as...
22Jan12:40 pmEST
This is Not the Golden Age of Flying
While Netflix's earnings surge understandably steals the show today, adding fuel to the Nasdaq, we have a glaring sell-the-news reaction to the quietly hot airline space taking place in United, after its own earnings last evening. On the updated UAL daily chart, below, we can see the sharp green-to-red move, currently sporting a sizable red...
21Jan12:29 pmEST
Hedonistic Nihilism
Hedonism is the belief that pleasure is the most important thing in life, while nihilism is the belief that life has no meaning or value. A combination of the two is called hedonistic nihilism. Given the shenanigans of the meme coins ($TRUMP and $MELANIA coins, for example, not to mention the estimable $FART coin) over the long weekend now,...
16Jan3:51 pmEST
Satanic Black Magic Natural Gas
Natural gas bulls should knock on every piece of wood they see for the foreseeable future, as the commodity and its related equities stage impressive rallies which still seem to be overlooked by most. I view these rallies as "lockouts," which I will discuss in more depth for Members this evening in my usual full video for them. For now, after...
15Jan2:11 pmEST
It's Pretty; It's So Pretty
The market is clearly focusing more on CPI coming in cooler than expectations this morning, conveniently ignoring the year over year increase in inflation over the last four months. Or is it? While equities are surging, and the bond market is enjoying some relief as rates come down, gold, for example, is sporting an explosive-looking monthly...
14Jan12:49 pmEST
The Danger is No Joke
A cooler PPI print this morning initially ignited a rally in stocks. However, as I write this the rally faded to red, with tech giving up the ghost within the first hour or so of trading. Monsters like META and NVDA are notable laggards. Further, as we noted with Members in the Morning Prep Video, bonds never really got behind the idea that...
13Jan2:24 pmEST
An Undisputed Consensus Emerges
Without question, among bond market experts and general market pundits, there is a clear and unequivocal consensus brewing that if rates on the 10-Year Note touch near 5% again, as they did back around Halloween 2023, then it will mark a definitive top in rates just like it did back then. Naturally, I take the other side of that view, as I...
10Jan11:27 amEST
Live By the MAGS, Die By the MAGS
After forming a series of lower highs since mid-December, the Magnificent 7 ETF, first chart below on the daily timeframe, is breaching well-defined support this morning. The second chart, below, for reference is of the S&P 500 Index daily and also shows a support breakdown so far today, indicative of a head and shoulders bearish top...
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About
“chessNwine” has been a popular trader and financial blogger since 2009. His work has appeared in The Wall Street Journal Online Edition, Yahoo Finance, TheStreet.com, Josh Brown’s The Reformed Broker blog, AbnormalReturns.com, Barry Ritholtz’s The Big Picture blog, and the “Suggested” stream on Stocktwits.com.
