Trading Ideas
Showing articles 21 - 40 (5381 total)
20Jun10:52 amEST
Happenings in the Far East
Bifurcation, as we have been noting here and with Members, is anywhere and everywhere you look these days: Within sectors (tech), within major economies, across asset classes and global markets. This is the primary driver behind the vast amount of cherry-picking going on right now be it from bulls, bears, doves, or hawks. But my main takeaway...
17Jun12:45 pmEST
The Curious Case of Bifurcation
Great visual, below, of just how bifurcated this market has become. Bifurcation is a concept that we have noted with Members in more depth. Simply put, it refers to the market losing its discipline beyond the standard "winners versus losers" you often see in capitalism. Instead, when the winners (tech, the blue line) become narrow and crowded...
13Jun2:21 pmEST
Two Firms Getting Their Lunches Eaten
Ford, upstaged by GM, and United Airlines, upstaged by Delta and others, both look like actionable short ideas into weakness, as seen on their respective daily charts, updated below. UAL looks like a head and shoulders top brewing, while Ford is breaking down from a bear flag, today. Overall, the market is still hinging on the runaway melt-up...
12Jun11:08 amEST
Summer Break or Summer Breakdown
Equities are exuberant this morning off a slightly cool CPI print, namely the small caps, Nasdaq, and rate-sensitive sectors. We still have the FOMC at 2pm EST, followed by a Powell press conference, which makes this rally all the more euphoric given the total lack of respect for any risk which may present itself later today. Still, bulls...
11Jun11:32 amEST
It Ain't Just the Regional Banks
Not only are the regional banks, housed in the KRE sector ETF, a lingering issue conveniently ignored by equity and credit bulls alike, but now we have the larger banks weakening alongside them. Yesterday we saw the KRE act poorly at prior support and largely unnoticed as NVDA, the FOMC, oil, and other topics grabbed headlines. Today we have...
10Jun11:19 amEST
Literal Diamonds in the Rough
Shares of Diamond Offshore are popping by more than 9% as I write this on the back of a buyout offer from Noble Energy this morning. Both firms are offshore rig contractors, with NE bigger than DO. Interestingly, shares of NE are higher, too, which is not the typical arbitrage play in mergers & acquisitions--The acquiring firm usually gets...
06Jun12:27 pmEST
Everything Works in Cycles
I recently read an article which noted that Automats are on the verge of a comeback in New York City. It would not surprise me to see laundromats pop up in more volume, too, as washer/dryer units in homes and apartments inevitably break from old age, wear and tear, and during times of inflation coupled with potentially slowing economic...
05Jun11:04 amEST
I. Was. Front-Running!
In many respects this particular stock market has turned into one, massive, front-running machine. While I understand many will counter that equities have always been a discounting mechanism, which I tend to largely agree with, this regime has featured a nonstop effort to price in any and all bullish outcomes to the extreme max. Not only have...
04Jun11:27 amEST
Tough to Make This Connection
You may be surprised to learn that the IWM, ETF for the small cap-led Russell 2000 Index, is currently trading at levels it traded at back in December 2020. For all of the talk about the epic NVDA bull run, the Magnificent 7 names, as well as the likes of COST building a kind of Tower of Babel off the charts into the sky being equated with...
03Jun1:16 pmEST
We Salute the Sector, Not the Stock
The NVIDIA-versus-the-world dynamic seems like it is even more at play today, to kick off the new month. Specifically, as I write this shares of NVDA are higher by 3% while the semiconductor index in the SOX is down by more than 1%. The Dow is down by about 400 points amid a plethora of broad market reversals lower from the open, when it seems...
30May1:23 pmEST
Just Don't Slip Up Now
We have a pretty textbook bull flag setup on the GDXJ, ETF for junior miners, as seen on the daily chart, below. Indeed, even with the silver metal coming in today it is quite impressive to see money flowing back into the precious miners after their recent consolidation. As you can see, the miners have not even suffered a flesh wound on the...
29May12:28 pmEST
An Oldie But Goodie
Rates are on the move higher again today with the 10-Year Note back over 4.6% as I write this. Without question the many folks who boldly proclaimed rates had topped for the year earlier this month will need to at least pause and reflect on that view, as we noted yesterday that the TNX (Index for Rates on the 10-Year) weekly chart has been...
28May10:15 amEST
Oil Still Could Crack the Case
As a fiery debate rages across many asset classes regarding whether or not inflation is reaccelerating, crude oil may be the key piece of the puzzle which determines the outcome this summer. On the updated USO ETF daily chart, below, you can see the technical crossroads crude is faced with--A full month now of flopping and chopping around...
22May2:18 pmEST
Learn Your LULU Lesson
When shares of Lululemon hit new all-time highs last December 2023 it was quite fashionable for bulls to boast about how LULU was just like COST GOOGL MSFT NVDA and other nonstop, crowded winners who simply could not lose in this market. Since then, as you can see on the monthly chart for LULU, first below, the stock has tumbled violently...
20May11:30 amEST
The Coast May Never Be Clear
Notoriously full of head-fakes and heartbreaks, commodities can be the most ruthless asset class when it comes to trying to time breakouts. For long periods of time commodities essentially lay dormant. But when they do finally wake up, the momentum can be beyond the comprehension of even the most steadfast of bulls. All we can do is...
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“chessNwine” has been a popular trader and financial blogger since 2009. His work has appeared in The Wall Street Journal Online Edition, Yahoo Finance, TheStreet.com, Josh Brown’s The Reformed Broker blog, AbnormalReturns.com, Barry Ritholtz’s The Big Picture blog, and the “Suggested” stream on Stocktwits.com.
