Trading Ideas

Showing articles 41 - 60 (5436 total)

29Aug2:42 pmEST

Surviving the Game

An afternoon fade is seeing the Nasdaq turn red as I write this, with the 17,780 level we noted here and with Members on the Nasdaq Composite Index asserting itself as firm resistance today.  NVDA is currently down 6%, GOOGL is a dud again, yet bulls were as cocky as I can recall earlier today on the prospect of an unstoppable freight train of...

27Aug2:10 pmEST

What if Inflation is Bottoming, Not Topping?

Even though I have been out of my bond short since July I remain focused on the long-term inflationary dynamics still very much in play. The rate of inflation has slowed but that differs greatly than us experiencing deflation (Just go to the grocery store, pay your healthcare bill, various insurance costs, etc., for reference).  That said, what...

26Aug11:57 amEST

Predators and Prey

The chart, below, has been making the rounds on social media of late. I saw Don Johnson (@DonMiami3), an economist, tweet it out previously.  As you can see, retail investors were galvanized by the selloff at the beginning of the month and, instead of feeling fear or panic, saw dollar signs instead and bought stocks hand over fist. While that...

23Aug3:12 pmEST

Afternoon Update 08/23/24 {Video}

22Aug3:34 pmEST

I'm Sorry Ms. Jackson Hole, The Jobs Numbers Are Not for Real

The front-running of major events has been one of the hallmarks of this market for a while now, with inside information rumored to be circulating to the well-connected in a timely manner. The simple fact is that we will probably never know for sure whether that is the case. And, frankly, that is life on Wall Street and has been for over a...

21Aug2:52 pmEST

The Longest Game

Even with a firm VIX and strong Yen today, stocks are a bit higher today as I write this on the back of both massive BLS job revisions lower plus dovish Fed Minutes, both of which would seem to give The Fed ample cover to cut rates in September.  However, those traders who either traded through or studied initial rate cuts, like 2007, know that...

20Aug2:12 pmEST

Who Does Number Two Work For?

With a little over one week until NVIDIA reports earnings, it is completely understandable that the buildup to it will continue to be dramatic. After all, we are talking about the largest, most prominent stock at the epicenter of the Nasdaq/AI/semiconductor melt-ups all rolled into on ticker. We also have a high profile, black leather...

16Aug2:42 pmEST

Afternoon Update 08/16/24 {Video}

15Aug12:26 pmEST

Jump Around

With a week to go before the annual central banking conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, gets underway from August 22-24, markets are jumping higher off strong retail sales this morning.  Since the beginning of last week's sizable gap down we have seen all minor potential resistance areas prove futile, as bulls reverted to the old playbook of...

13Aug11:40 amEST

Speak of the (Venti) Devil

In yesterday's note we discussed waiting for a rally  in Starbucks before looking to attack the short side again potentially into 2025.  Consistent with this market, however, everything--and I mean everything--seems to get pulled forward on the bull side.  Specifically, Starbucks just effectively plucked Chipotle's highly acclaimed CEO . ...

09Aug3:09 pmEST

Afternoon Update 08/09/24 {Video}

08Aug11:17 amEST

Daily Dose of Perspective

One of the more interesting aspects about a market which sees increasingly violently and random price swings is that you see folks try to claim victory for each and every single move. Mind you, I, too, was once a young man in this business so I understand the temptation. But even some veterans cannot resist the urge to be on top of every single...

07Aug12:37 pmEST

Close Together Doesn't Mean Best Friends

In just a few trading sessions the small caps in the Russell 2000 Index went from multi-year highs as the hottest rotation plays in the market down to multi-month lows. The IWM, ETF for the Russell (below, on the updated daily chart), shows the small caps violently testing the 200-day moving average (yellow line) on Monday before bouncing up to...

05Aug10:13 amEST

You Don't Know What This is, Do You?

Seeing as we are in the dog days of summer, where most of Wall Street's "Masters of the Universe" are off in the Hamptons, on Cape Cod, or somewhere along the Mediterranean, not to mention the Olympics taking place in Paris, it is quite noteworthy indeed to see markets dive lower to the degree they did off the open as the VIX surges.  Put...

02Aug1:30 pmEST

Afternoon Update 08/02/24 {Video}

26Jul2:36 pmEST

Afternoon Update 07/26/24 {Video}

25Jul12:04 pmEST

This is What a High(er) VIX Means

While certainly not at historically elevated extremes, the VIX (or Volatility Index) is higher than the sleepwalking levels it spent most of this spring and summer, heretofore. This morning, NVDA, semis, and most tech at-large opened sizably lower before reversing back to green/flat as I write this.  Bulls are cheering this move as a kind of...

23Jul1:26 pmEST

Misdirection to Throw You Off the Trail

After yesterday's relief bounce, the market is broadly being whipped around today with small caps outperforming. On the downside, however, semiconductors are among the worst performers on the back of an NXPI earnings selloff. Transports are also being sold as UPS is getting pounded after its own earnings.  However, I believe the takeaway from...

22Jul11:44 amEST

New Regimes All the Way Around

If you accept the timeless Wall Street axiom that, "Markets hate uncertainty," then there can be little doubt an upcoming general election without the incumbent on the ballot will spark uncertainty, especially with President Biden dropping out of the race this late in the process. In addition, we have rising conflicts in the Middle East,...

19Jul2:15 pmEST

Afternoon Update 07/19/24 {Video}

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