Trading Ideas
Showing articles 1 - 20 (5665 total)
10Dec3:26 pmEST
Non-Inflation Inflation, Non-QE QE
Today's presser featured Fed Chair Powell acting like the lamest of ducks, with his tenure set to lapse next May 2026. He acted like a Fed Chair who knows he is leaving behind a bloody mess but he, once again, did not have the intestinal fortitude to do anything remotely close to the right thing in order to try to get inflation down to target...
09Dec3:01 pmEST
It's the Print After the FOMC That Matters
Both rates on the long end of the curve and precious metals/miners have been heating up as we head into a likely 25 bps rate cut (of the overnight, or Federal Funds, rate) by The Fed tomorrow afternoon at 2pm EST. At first blush it would seem that the metals and government bond markets are signaling to The Fed a view I have personally held for...
08Dec3:03 pmEST
A Twisted Sense of Humor
It is worth remembering that the market has a history of displaying a twisted sense of humor at the most inopportune of times. Specifically, the S&P 500 Index bottomed precisely in early-March 2009 at 666, the biblical "mark of the beast." Before that, during the October 2008 crash, there was a session where the only green stock on the New York...
04Dec3:31 pmEST
Trainwreck Cruise Charts
There seems to be a raging debate these days about just how strong the consumer truly is. We know the "K-Shaped" theory of the split economy has gained quite a bit of traction, with the upper crust of society flourishing while just about everyone else is getting squeezed by inflation (even if the rate of inflation has slowed since 2022 prices...
03Dec1:50 pmEST
Big Dog's Gotta Eat
Today's marked strength in the OIH, ETF for oil services and equipment stocks, reinforces our consistent attention to that group for a while now, both here and with Members. Even as oil itself is continuing to search for firm footing, when the OIH names act this well it can often be a bullish hint as business ramps up. As I write this, the OIH...
02Dec3:05 pmEST
Location, Location, Location
Much like in real estate when we analyze the technicals, specifically candlesticks and patterns in general, we want to hone in on location as a significant factor. In particular, the first weekly chart, below, for the Palladium precious metal shows us a tight technical sideways base. In and of itself, however, that only tells us part of the...
01Dec2:26 pmEST
Nothing Ever Happens, Right?
Overnight we saw rates in Japan push to seventeen year highs in some cases, as pressure mounts on the Bank of Japan to raise rates at their December 19th meeting (the FOMC is next week on the 10th, where a cut is now expected). The push higher in rates in Japan is being met with rates here in America moving higher today, too. On the TLT ETF...
28Nov9:38 amEST
Hey CME, Turn Those Machines Back On!
Futures were halted for ten hours overnight, as traders were not been able to buy or sell CME futures and options, including for U.S. indexes, Treasuries, metals, and oil due to "cooling problems" at a key data center. Conspiracy theories aside , the precious metals and derivative miners are flourishing here, following-through on the setup...
25Nov2:42 pmEST
Tremendous Moxie for Their Size
As slippery and untrustworthy as oil has been, you cannot deny the moxie, grit, and underlying bid that the oil services and equipment stocks in the OIH ETF have showing for a while now. Case in point: Even with crude having a soft session (but rallying off the session lows as we speak in the USO ETF) NBR (below on the daily chart) is one of...
24Nov3:16 pmEST
They Just Keep Boozin' it Up
With a conspicuous lack of adults in the room inside the Beltway these days, the goal of The Fed and White House seems to be to perpetually goose asset prices and stave of recessions forever, or at least during the lifetime of their power. Just today we have the third quarter GDP estimate data release cancelled, while the PCE (The Fed's favored...
20Nov11:57 amEST
We've Been Here Before
After an emotional post-NVIDIA earnings after hours session last evening we are seeing a broad market fade set in as we head into the New York lunch hour. While NVDA bulls are pointing towards bears' accusations of fraud as evidence per se of the pain trade being higher yet for AI, as I write this I see NVDA just flipped red, seen on the daily...
17Nov3:11 pmEST
Growing More Dangerous
After a brief spike over 20 last month, the VIX (or Volatility Index, which typically measures expectations of fear in the options market) immediately moved back down into the mid-teens, a fairly common occurrence from this market regime we have seen over the years, particularly since the pandemic. As we have noted often both here and with...
13Nov1:56 pmEST
Diminishing Returns
We are seeing a fairly steep broad sell-off this afternoon. And, perhaps, of even more significance is the fact that the likes of CNBC is struggling to assign a reason for said big move. It is often said that when markets sell off on (seemingly) no news it can be seen as all the more bearish, as opposed to headline-drive swoons. Of course, one...
12Nov3:26 pmEST
Trapped But Plotting an Escape
The updated chart, below, of the QQQ ETF, on the hourly timeframe dating back to the October 29th highs exactly two weeks ago, pretty much sums up where the Nasdaq is at the moment. We have a corrective structure in the near-term, with bulls arguing this is but a mere blip before an inevitable end-of-year melt-up, while bears counter that every...
11Nov3:28 pmEST
Perhaps All Roads Lead Back to Exxon
Exxon, of course one part of the ExxonMobile Corporation since the 1999 merger, used to part of the Standard Oil trust, specifically Standard Oil of New Jersey. There is a rich history, some violent, some catastrophic, in my original hometown of Bayonne, New Jersey dating back to 1900. Even with the long-term struggles of crude oil itself, it...
10Nov12:58 pmEST
You Cannot Fool All of the Markets All of the Time
"You can fool all of the people some of the time, and some of the people all of the time, but you cannot fool all of the people all of the time" -Abraham Lincoln (most likely) After a recent minor pullback on the major indices we saw President Trump spend most of the weekend touting various stimuli, namely $2,000 tariff rebate checks and...
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“chessNwine” has been a popular trader and financial blogger since 2009. His work has appeared in The Wall Street Journal Online Edition, Yahoo Finance, TheStreet.com, Josh Brown’s The Reformed Broker blog, AbnormalReturns.com, Barry Ritholtz’s The Big Picture blog, and the “Suggested” stream on Stocktwits.com.
