Trading Ideas
Showing articles 1 - 20 (5724 total)
25Mar2:22 pmEST
Wag the Dog
"Wag the dog," in addition to being the title of a film from 1997, is a term for the act of creating a diversion from damaging issues through military force. Now, I am not accusing the White House of wagging the dog, per se, in terms of the original attacks on Iran. But with respect to the last few days of swirling headlines regarding whether...
24Mar3:42 pmEST
An Educational (and Actionable) Point
It is another uneven bounce attempt in the broad market today, albeit one where downside acceleration still seems like something akin to the Loch Ness Monster. That said, given the Trump tweet yesterday morning which shocked markets to the upside (and oil to the downside), if those moves should fizzle out and equities head down to breach last...
23Mar2:17 pmEST
Trump Tower of Babel
A pre-market Truth Social post by President Trump saw an abrupt and sharp upside reversal in equities to dovetail the downside move in oil. While the veracity of the actual content of Trump's post remains under scrutiny, as far as whether or not legitimate representatives of Iran are in communication with him working towards some type of...
19Mar1:43 pmEST
The Window Has Shifted
The CME Group FedWatch Tool tracks probabilities regarding future Fed Meetings and potential changes to the Federal Funds Rate ("FFR"). We periodically update Members when we see something of note which changes expectations and can potentially impact a repricing in various asset classes, namely equities and government bonds. In light of...
18Mar3:28 pmEST
The Last of the Growthicans
The latest FOMC came and went, with Fed Chair Powell's presser just having wrapped up. Despite being adamant about continuing in his role if Kevin Warsh's nomination runs into issues, he also seemed befuddled about verbalizing that inflation has, in fact, been above The Fed's 2% target for five years and running. He uttered that statement a few...
16Mar3:13 pmEST
Memory to the Test
Micron Technology (MU) reports this Wednesday evening, a rather late-season week to report. Coupled with the war in Iran on top of the FOMC on Wednesday during the session, it is easy to see how MU's earnings report may be overlooked. Recall that Micron is a leading global manufacturer of semiconductor memory AI and data centers, among other...
12Mar2:52 pmEST
Even Golden Slacks Get Worn Out
Goldman Sachs (sometimes known as "Golden Slacks," as one its kinder nicknames compared to others) the iconic banking house, is the worst performer in the Dow Jones Industrial Average today as I write this. After tagging the big, round, 50,000 number in February, the Dow continues to unwind, suddenly within a stone's throw of testing its...
11Mar2:55 pmEST
It's Not Just Oil
We have another indecisive session for equities, with bulls generally aiming to prove that the Iran conflict and the economy at-large are truly nothing to fret over, while bears are still trying to wrestle the overall market initiative away. As for oil, despite plenty of reserves being released spot price remains plucky. I strongly suspect the...
10Mar3:05 pmEST
Getting Out of Line
The big news of the afternoon, which clearly has had an impact on markets, centered around U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright deleting his "X" post, which had announced the U.S. Navy escorted an oil tanker through the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian officials immediately refuted the validity of the post, which Wright (or his staff) had deleted,...
09Mar2:44 pmEST
The Spotlight Shines Both Ways
Now that Warren Buffett has quietly stepped back from the spotlight at Berkshire Hathaway it seems fair to say that Larry Fink and Jamie Dimon are the two highest profile executives of large financials, carrying a certain degree of gravitas which is undeniable to even their harshest critics. Case in point, you can see the spectacular...
05Mar3:10 pmEST
Long and Variable Effects from Gas
As if most Americans did not have enough to worry about these days, the risk of a fast and furious spike in gasoline prices beyond what we have already seen is easily one of the biggest risks in the coming weeks from the Iran escalation. First and foremost, this is not merely a knee-jerk headline chasing move in the energy pits, since we know...
04Mar3:25 pmEST
A Good-Looking Broadcom
Broadcom (AVGO, below on the monthly chart, with the quirky ticker after a merger many years ago) reports tonight. The AI/semiconductor play gets overlooked at times solely with respect to being a major market leader since it does, after all, have a market cap north of $1.5 trillion as I write this. But it should be considered much more of a...
03Mar2:43 pmEST
Did You Even Say Gamsahabnida?
The South Korean KOSPI Index has been red-hot this year, mostly due to favorable corporate governance reforms and, of course, monstrous AI-driven demand for chips like Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. Indeed, the EWY, country ETF for South Korea, surged roughly 40% in this early part of 2026 alone. As you can see on the EWY weekly chart,...
02Mar2:35 pmEST
Are We Sure Oil & Gas Are Fades?
"When you get a range expansion, the market is sending you a very loud, clear signal that the market is getting ready to move in the direction of that expansion." -Paul Tudor Jones The above quote by Paul Tudor Jones seems applicable to gasoline and oil, respectively below on their ETF monthly charts. On the back of Trump's decision to...
26Feb1:38 pmEST
It's the Reaction
As Michael Burry notes above, a stock at the epicenter of a roaring bull market/melt-up (or, dare I say, bubble) can easily top out for no rhyme or reason well before earnings ever show the slowdown. While bulls may understandably quibble with this logic, the reality is that markets often overshoot and then ruthlessly correct. In the case of a...
25Feb12:58 pmEST
With a Kiss
The Nasdaq is leading a broad market rally today on the back of a cheerleading performance by President Trump in last night's lengthy State of the Union Address. There is also hope that a deal will soon be struck with Iran to avert a major escalation. And even NVIDIA is rallying nicely in front of its big earnings report tonight. That said,...
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“chessNwine” has been a popular trader and financial blogger since 2009. His work has appeared in The Wall Street Journal Online Edition, Yahoo Finance, TheStreet.com, Josh Brown’s The Reformed Broker blog, AbnormalReturns.com, Barry Ritholtz’s The Big Picture blog, and the “Suggested” stream on Stocktwits.com.
