Trading Ideas
Showing articles 1 - 20 (5600 total)
29Aug1:22 pmEST
Underowned and Underloved
It is the Friday before the long Labor Day Weekend, as we conclude a summer of mostly tedious price action (and non-existent volatility) against the backdrop of nonstop political and economic drama-filled headlines. Thus, we should probably take virtually everything we see, hear, and feel today with a grain of salt since many traders are...
27Aug2:45 pmEST
Twenty-Five Years Ago to the Month
With NVIDIA earnings this evening it is worth revisiting a parallel we have previously drawn both here and with Members: The magnificent bubble and collapse of Cisco during the dot-com mania. CSCO still has not recaptured its prior highs from mid-2000, as seen on the quarterly chart, below. If you traded back then, you know that CSCO, with...
26Aug2:16 pmEST
The Hangover Effect
It has been a wild late-August for Target after a summer-long rally abruptly ended on news of its CEO stepping down alongside a recent earning selloff. Overall, shares of TGT topped out back in late-2021 and remain well below those $268.98 highs, with the stock now trading in double digits as I write this. For our purposes, however, the...
25Aug3:04 pmEST
Summertime Blues
NVDA is up about 2% into the final hour of trading, headed into Wednesday evening's earnings which is, no doubt, the last remaining major firm to report this summer. Of course, we also have GDP and PCE data points later in the week, both of which could easily shift expectations for a September rate cut. In addition, President Trump is as active...
20Aug1:25 pmEST
I Respect the Strategy
News of Pepsi raising prices by 10% on their carbonated soft drinks in a few weeks hit the wires today. In addition, I saw a report that Monster Energy (of which Coca Cola owns a piece) plans to raise prices on its U.S. energy drinks. These price increases during an entrenched period of inflation should come as no surprise to anyone....
19Aug3:08 pmEST
Rethinking Old Battle Lines
Today seems like the first day in forever that we are seeing coordinated heavy selling at the epicenter of the bubble in AI/growth/tech. High-flying names likes PLTR HOOD, chips like AMD MRVL, as well as monsters like NVDA are all being sold fairly aggressively into the final hour. Naturally, one session does not a new downtrend make,...
18Aug1:28 pmEST
Time to Be Open-Minded About Solar
After several years of price action which can only be described as putrid we now have some domestic solars like First Solar and Sunrun bearing an uncanny resemblance to the TAN sector ETF daily chart, seen below. In all cases we have price recently consolidating back above the 200-day moving average (yellow line) and then pushing higher...
14Aug3:22 pmEST
If You Don't Like the Temperature, Just Change the Thermometer
Even with one of the hottest PPI prints I can recall in years earlier this morning, the CME FedWatch odds for rate cuts at the next FOMC (and each subsequent one into early-2026) are still well over 90%. Now, The Fed may opt for a 25 bps cut in lieu of 50 bps given the hot print. But unless Jerome Powell can summons the fortitude to shun both...
13Aug3:29 pmEST
Prepare for the New Era of Tinkering
It is well documented that during times of entrenched inflation, like in the 1970s, we see folks "stretching out" every last ounce they can get from their household durables (also known as durable goods, items designed for long-term use within a household, typically lasting for three years or more). In other words, spending the money to...
12Aug3:15 pmEST
Sky High Nihilism
The major indices and leading stocks continue to operate in a kind of nihilistic world where any and all news items, macro reports, slight dips, bearish technical setups, etc., all point to higher equities, regardless. While it seems like a new paradigm has taken hold, one which has permanently changed markets forever, we know history implores...
11Aug2:53 pmEST
Many Converts Await
With President Trump announcing he is casting his net even wider with candidates to become his nominee for next Fed Chair, it only creates an even larger incentive for said candidates to audition via a blatantly dovish view on rates. Put another way, the most dovish candidate has a better chance of winning Trump's nomination than a hawkish one,...
07Aug2:28 pmEST
I Feel Sorry for Your Bubble
Putting to one side the fade in large cap tech today, the perennial lagging sectors like regional banks (KRE ETF) and smaller cap biotech (XBI ETF, below on the daily chart) have not quite lived up to the many calls for a bonafide rotation into the back half of 2025 and beyond. For a good while now we have been in both in a bifurcated market...
06Aug10:29 amEST
One Last Trip for Old Times' Sake
It should not come as too much of surprise to see the semiconductor AMD struggle after earnings in the area above $160. After all, gauging the monthly chart, below, we have seen Advanced Micro Devices run into major tops above that level dating back several years now. As I write this, AMD is leading the SMH semiconductor ETF lower, the former...
04Aug2:09 pmEST
Big Week for Vegas But Well Off the Strip
In light of recent buzz about the plight of Las Vegas, it seems fitting that DraftKings is set to report earnings this week on Wednesday evening. After all, on top of rising room rates/resort fees in Vegas as well as a multitude of other factors, the rise of legalized online gambling across the country is surely one of several reasons for Las...
31Jul3:28 pmEST
Muddy Tug of War
The ARM earnings disappointment (down 13.7%) has had a surprisingly strong effect on the Nasdaq today, considering all of the hype surrounding both Meta and Microsoft rallying sharply after earnings last evening. As it stands now META is still up more than 11%, MSFT up nearly 4%, yet the QQQ is red as we head into Apple and Amazon earnings this...
30Jul3:35 pmEST
Weak Fed Leadership Marred by Dissents and Bessents
Today's FOMC decision to hold rates steady was met with two dissents among the voting members, marking the first time in more than thirty years we have seen a double dissent. Fed Chair Jay Powell's constant toeing the line seems to finally be wearing thin with most, as he would rather engage in legalese, "arguments for both sides," in lieu of...
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“chessNwine” has been a popular trader and financial blogger since 2009. His work has appeared in The Wall Street Journal Online Edition, Yahoo Finance, TheStreet.com, Josh Brown’s The Reformed Broker blog, AbnormalReturns.com, Barry Ritholtz’s The Big Picture blog, and the “Suggested” stream on Stocktwits.com.
