Trading Ideas
Showing articles 1 - 20 (5632 total)
20Oct2:13 pmEST
A Tough Score to Take Down
Amidst all of the trade war ballyhoo, on top of all of the other swirling headlines about various markets and politics these days, it is likely true that natural gas is the last thing on just about everyone's minds. After all, the commodity has a vicious reputation for breaking the hearts and minds of bulls over a period of many, many years,...
16Oct3:27 pmEST
The VIX Says No More Wham Bam Thank You Ma'am
Since the initial volatility crush off the lows in equities back in April we have seen various and ephemeral spikes in the VIX all quickly erode above the 20 level. Simply put, as it pertains to VIX spikes: If you blinked, you missed it. Recently, however, we have been noting here and with Members that the VIX had been diverging from the...
15Oct3:40 pmEST
Sick, Twisted Market
The Nasdaq Top 100 ETF is still showing strong sensitivity to last Friday's midpoint during that big selloff, as seen on the updated 30-minute chart, below, for the QQQ. Even today during midday highs we saw sellers eager to sell into China-related headlines, even if bears continue to struggle to follow-through lower. Hence, the near-term...
14Oct3:14 pmEST
People of Walmart Becomes Robots of Walmart
One of the hallmarks of the dot-com bubble over twenty-five years ago was seeing companies added ".com" to their names (or, perhaps, adding "e" prefixes to the name). These announcements would typically lead to an instant spike in share prices, as the firms would signal, however superficially, that they were now part of the "in" group of hot...
13Oct2:31 pmEST
Long Live the SS Gairsoppa!
Despite (or, perhaps, because of) how many were adamant that gold had topped out last week we have the precious metals and miners extending higher yet again today alongside the reflex rally in equities. This sort of price action make it excruciatingly difficult to establish new long positions in the precious metals and miners, as the likes of...
09Oct10:15 amEST
Bubble for Thee but Not for Me
To state the obvious, precious metals and miners have now become grossly overbought and extended in the short-term. In a uniquely rich development we have folks who have been tech/AI bulls declaring how absurdly overbought gold is and how ripe it is for either a crash or major top from here. While I certainly agree, as noted with Members, that...
07Oct3:11 pmEST
Is That the End?
Without question this market has to rank as one of the all-time epic melt-ups in the Nasdaq, especially considering the economic backdrop and geopolitical tensions, not to mention monetary and fiscal blunders. Still, the party has rolled on, with many of the main characters/CEOs in the AI story having been at the epicenter of the dot-com...
06Oct3:13 pmEST
It's Still Lock and Roll to Me
You might have looked at the daily charts for both GLD (ETF for gold) and SMH (ETF for semiconductors) and arrived at the conclusion that they bear an uncanny resemblance to each other. After all, they both have enjoyed a steep multi-month uptrend and are gapping up aggressively today, the former on happenings in Japan and the latter off the...
02Oct3:15 pmEST
The Sprouts Test
By now it is becoming increasingly ubiquitous to acknowledge that the economy is of the "K-shaped" variety, which basically means the rich get richer while just about everyone flounders, fighting hard to stay on top of bills, expensive, survival. We have profiled, both here and with Members, the destruction of prominent consumer names being...
01Oct3:09 pmEST
Let the Winter Pass in October
"Sometimes it is best to lie low, to do nothing but let the winter pass." -Robert Greene Despite how lousy crude oil itself has been, particularly when it comes to sustaining upside moves, quite a few oil stocks and related names to the oil space (e.g. tankers, discussed with Members) are acting quite well. Exhibit A would be APA (Apache)...
30Sep3:18 pmEST
Cereal Gamblers and Serial Gamblers
Prediction platform Kalshi (not to be confused with the "healthy" cereal Kashi) is sending shock waves throughout the online gambling world today, apparently having a bigger-than-expected chunk of market share in sports betting during the all-important football season. We know Kalshi does well in those states where it is, of course, legal, like...
29Sep2:48 pmEST
If You Open That Door...
Compare and contrast a recent Yahoo Financial article versus the infamous Irving Fisher quote less than two weeks before the 1929 crash, respectively below. You are welcome to call this doom and gloom posting if you like. But the fact remains that, objectively, these types of declarative statements about markets in such a cocksure way, about...
25Sep2:06 pmEST
Dangerous Temptations
This market regime, centered around the Nasdaq names, will not end unless and until we see the recurring theme (likely in the hundreds by now since early-2023) of opening gaps down aggressively getting bought begins to effectively punish bulls. In order to do that we need to see a plethora of daily closes on the lows, or near them, and then...
24Sep1:58 pmEST
Everyone Who Wanted to Sell Oil By Now, Already Has
One of the more instructive aspects about observing long-term timeframes is to gain clarity. Specifically, in the case of oil we have the ETF, on the first quarterly chart, below, sporting the "bull killer" pattern of a crash more than ten years ago followed by the last ten years of, overall, tedious sideways action. In other words, since the...
23Sep3:19 pmEST
Head Games Galore
The nature of a market melt-up is that classic bearish reversal signals are routinely ignored and even openly mocked. After all, if "stocks only go up because 'they' won't let them drop," is the prevailing mantra then what good is it to assign any significance, whatsoever, to textbook potential reversal candlesticks or patterns? Simply put,...
22Sep3:05 pmEST
Let Them Eat Punches to the Face
If the plan after April's pivot by the Treasury Secretary (recall, "It is Main Street's turn now," which lasted about as long as a blink of the eye) and White House Administration at-large was to goose virtually all assets at the expense of the overwhelming majority of Americans' cost of living, then so far so good--Just today we have another...
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“chessNwine” has been a popular trader and financial blogger since 2009. His work has appeared in The Wall Street Journal Online Edition, Yahoo Finance, TheStreet.com, Josh Brown’s The Reformed Broker blog, AbnormalReturns.com, Barry Ritholtz’s The Big Picture blog, and the “Suggested” stream on Stocktwits.com.
