Trading Ideas
Showing articles 1 - 20 (5778 total)
01Jul2:53 pmEST
Tilting the Odds
Amid the steep selloff in tech and especially semiconductors today to kick off the new month and quarter, it seems to be lost in the shuffle that both the banks and insurers (the latter on the ETF monthly chart, second below, breaking out) are rallying sharply. Recall that both the banks and insurance firms are seen as "rate-sensitive," meaning...
30Jun1:49 pmEST
You Come to Expect the Fight
Despite Treasuries topping out during the pandemic (which means rates on the long end of the curve bottomed) we still have not yet seen a classic panic/washout bottom in the bond market. Bond bulls remain steadfast that a new bull market in bonds is just around the corner, either due to money leaving equities and commodities during a...
29Jun3:28 pmEST
Doesn't Seem Aboveboard
Here we are again after another weekend of rapid fire reports of escalations with Iran, followed by a miracle Sunday evening announcement (just before futures opened) that both sides had (apparently) agreed to peace talks this week. It is difficult to believe that the market keeps going along with this shockingly redundant pattern, especially...
25Jun2:15 pmEST
Let's Get This Out of the Red
After forcing myself to be patient for several months now, I am warming up to the idea that most of the commodity complex has been washed out lower, be it oil, gold, silver, and ags. Specifically, the levered longs from last month in oil are likely at the point where they are mumbling to themselves as they walk to their cars in the casino...
24Jun11:00 amEST
Micron Macro
Semiconductors are displaying relative weakness as I write this amid a broad market morning bounce to respond to yesterday's sharp Nasdaq-led selloff. However, we have to be honest that this is all prologue to the ~$1.2 trillion market cap Micron Technology, Inc. earnings event this evening. And that is all the more pronounced given that we...
22Jun3:14 pmEST
They Sell Occam's Razors at Big Box Stores
While the weakness in the Magnificent 7 (using MAGS ETF as a gauge) is finally becoming too much to ignore today, as GOOGL and AMZN are selling off heavily to follow the ongoing META MSFT underperformance, let us not ignore the continued laggards in the housing retail big box segment. For a good while now we have profiled the bearish chart...
17Jun3:32 pmEST
Warsh Sale Rule Begins
Despite being fluent in corporate-speak, Kevin Warsh still got the point across during his first FOMC presser as Fed Chair that inflation is a legitimate concern, perhaps more than Jerome Powell let on during his final years as Chair. As a result, equities mostly reversed lower albeit with the plucky semiconductors still up nicely on the...
15Jun2:47 pmEST
Learn from a Legend
Amidst another headline-driven rally in stocks and selloff in oil today, this time on the back of what is allegedly the final deal with Iran, let us take a step back given the redundancy of the tape of late. Specifically, an overlooked Wall Street legend is the late, great Julian Robertson, Wall Street investor and founder of Tiger...
11Jun3:05 pmEST
I Knew It! I'm Surrounded By...
In front of tomorrow's SpaceX IPO (to be traded under ticker symbol, SPCX) President Trump came out earlier this afternoon with yet another market-moving Truth Social post where he cancelled this evening's military strikes against Iran as he said peace discussions moved to the highest levels of Iranian leadership. The indices surged on this...
10Jun2:55 pmEST
Fighting it Out in the Box
The violent price swings with an uptick in volatility that we noted yesterday is all the more pronounced today, with another sharp downside reversal earlier in the broad market after this morning's inline but still extremely hot CPI print. This evening we hear from Oracle, a legacy tech play heavily-involved with AI. ORCL is back below its...
09Jun3:09 pmEST
Swingers
On the back of swirling, competing headlines about whether or not Iran may be willing to negotiate a deal centered around enrichment suspension, we are seeing what can best be described as, easily, the most volatile and highest sell volume market action since this latest melt-up in late-March. The QQQ ETF (for the top 100 stocks in the Nasdaq)...
08Jun3:15 pmEST
The Oldest Trick in the Book
Lost in the shuffle of just about everything else, we saw the downtrodden stock of Chipotle Mexican Grill enjoy an upgrade by JPMorgan last Friday. Off the upgrade, CMG was galvanized with an initial surge of about 6% before fading a bit into the weekend but still finished green on the day. Today, the stock is up by about 0.4% as I write this. ...
04Jun2:32 pmEST
A Many Splendored Thing
While the AI trade continues to have the pizzazz, despite the AVGO selloff today, a fair amount of commodity-related stocks are quietly tightening up and steadily improving from a technical perspective. I still maintain, and have repeated this ad nauseam with Members, that until we see the AI trade unravel and reset it is tough to be...
03Jun3:25 pmEST
Slugging it Out in Japan
With plenty of focus on various headlines and markets, the last thing most U.S. traders are worried about right now is a foreign currency. Thus, consider this a friendly reminder to keep an eye on the Dollar/Yen currency cross, seen below on the daily chart. As this chart goes higher, the Yen weakens, since it is the denominator. And we know...
02Jun3:10 pmEST
The Destroyer of Worlds
URG is leading the charge for a uranium sector (URA is the sector ETF) which has been remarkably quiet for quarters now, even in the face of the Iran War. Even nuclear stocks like NNE OKLO SMR (albeit there is some overlap between the two segments) have been faring better after they, themselves, were quiet for several quarters, too. Overall, a...
01Jun3:31 pmEST
Are We Really Doing This Again?
The legendary football coach, Bill Parcells, once said, "Dumb players do dumb things. Smart players very seldom do dumb things." And that brings to the current market, which strikes me as one doing dumb things, and has been for quite some time. Furthermore, going back to 2021 what strikes me as truly befuddling is that repetitive nature of said...
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“chessNwine” has been a popular trader and financial blogger since 2009. His work has appeared in The Wall Street Journal Online Edition, Yahoo Finance, TheStreet.com, Josh Brown’s The Reformed Broker blog, AbnormalReturns.com, Barry Ritholtz’s The Big Picture blog, and the “Suggested” stream on Stocktwits.com.
