Trading Ideas

Showing articles 1 - 20 (4830 total)

05Jul3:45 pmEST

Got My Toes in the Water, Corny Country Music in the Sand

Although I cannot claim Zac Brown Band is my type of country music (check out Colt Ford [below] or Danny Boone instead), I do indeed also have some toes in the water now just like one of their top songs. With the rally in growth stocks holding deep into the afternoon, it appears that the crush in oil may be enough until the middle of the month...

05Jul10:52 amEST

Lots of Horsemen Out There

Despite a sizable thrust down on the indices at the open we now have a situation with glaring relative strength for those paying attention, as we strive to do with Members consistently through all types of markets.  Thus, although this market is far from what I would describe as healthy and thriving all the way around for bulls, seeing the...

01Jul12:28 pmEST

To Short or Not to Short?

By now it may not be a reach to declare the bullish seasonality argument for July to be well-known, if not an outright literal rallying cry for a market which continues to flounder. As the S&P 500 Index struggles to reclaim 3800, one has to wonder if the July bull setup may be a nasty trap which spawns a new leg down in the bear market.  What...

30Jun10:51 amEST

It's Not Adding Up

After a promising start to the week, oil stocks are giving up the ghost as we speak which is all the more an issue for the market given the persistent selling in growth and tech stocks.  We are in a seasonally stronger period for the next few weeks. However, this price action is not yet adding up to something actionable on the long side as I...

28Jun3:23 pmEST

A Downhill Threat

I came into today with a few longs on to probe the bear market rally thesis and bullish seasonality. But clearly the duration and size of the intraday selling off the opening pop took my aback. I felt fortunate to get out of one of the longs with modest, while stopping out of another.  As it stands now, my chief concern is the likes of junk and...

28Jun11:07 amEST

Inflation: Cherry Pickers' Paradise is Here

One phenomenon I am expecting, and already have seen quite a bit of, during this new inflationary regime is that when the inevitable dips come in certain, specific inflation readings we will see many harp on it as prima facie evidence of inflation effectively being squashed as a whole.  But I have serious doubts it will be as a simple as that. ...

27Jun3:15 pmEST

Perspective on a Rangebound Day

The major indices looked rangebound not long after the open this morning, and I remarked as much on the private Twitter feed with Members. As it stands now, this sort of action can be argued as proper digestion for bulls in light of the sharp rallying late last week. We have a few key events this week to wade through before we get to...

27Jun10:06 amEST

Even Good Ol' Boys Should Look at This China Play

If you are old enough, like me, to remember tickers like FUQI or RINO, among many, many, others, then you know the risks associated with trading China ADRs. There have been countless accounting frauds and, in essence, shell companies, to boot, although recently with The Fed ultra easy regime many of those were not uncovered the last few years. ...

26Jun11:36 amEST

Weekend Overview and Analysis 06/26/22 {Video}

The following video is a brief, condensed version of the full-length Weekend Video Strategy Session which I present each weekend to members of Market Chess Subscription Services. In the longer version, I offer tons of actionable trade ideas, educational content, and in-depth objective analysis across all markets.  Please click here  for more...

24Jun10:26 amEST

Roe v. Wade Overturned: Here's the Play

In a 5-4 decision, the Supreme Court has just overturned Roe v. Wade and ended the constitutional right to abortion. This clearly qualifies as international breaking news, although from a market perspective it seems like it is purely politically and socially-charged.  That said, as one of our Members astutely noted, there may be in a play here...

23Jun3:45 pmEST

Dating Only: Don't Get Attached to This Rally

Despite all of the wild intraday fades of late, including weakness in the futures overnight, bulls are putting up a formidable fight this week in the face of Powell's comments. With end of month, quarter, 4th of July, and a bit better seasonality all approaching rapidly, I view the outperformance from bios and ARKK as, perhaps, a sign that...

23Jun10:39 amEST

You Can't Stop What's Comin', That's Vanity

One phenomenon I have noticed of late has been market pundits bemoaning the lack of a true, washout capitulatory bottom. On CNBC, morning anchor Joe Kernan has been wondering aloud on a daily basis whether we need to see the VIX pop above 40 to get us close to a true bear market bottom. While it may seem like we will never get that...

22Jun3:54 pmEST

Markets Have a Sick Sense of Humor Sometimes

I am surprised to see how many market players and pundits are so quick to assume that just because the powers that be want lower oil and gas prices for the midterms that it will materialize so easily.  "They" talk about lower gas prices, but are we sure a federal gas tax holiday will suppress demand or actually stoke it by pulling it forward,...

22Jun10:48 amEST

I Simply Respect the Chemistry

Amid a plethora of reasons for the market to completely roll back over today, be it the dump in futures overnight, Powell talking about a fast rate hike pace going forward, fears of imminent recession, the proposed gas tax holiday backfiring, we have stocks now flashing green as I write this. True, there is a long way to go today and even this...

21Jun3:41 pmEST

Context for the Rest of the Week

ARKK, what with its abundance of growth stocks (namely bios) housed in Cathie Wood's flagship ETF, likely serves as the premier market tell for the rest of this week. With Fed Chair Powell's speech tomorrow and Thursday, bears will try to undo today's rally while bulls will bet on a continuation of the squeeze. The reason why ARKK is a good...

21Jun10:35 amEST

Attack and Retreat, Attack and Retreat

It appears we are still in the middle phase of the bear market, where many think the worst is over (this cycle, inflation and the dump in growth stocks) and it is easy to talk oneself into a major bear market bottom with the spike down and reversal in crypto over the long weekend. You may recall, however, that we saw similar "the worst is over"...

17Jun11:15 amEST

A Possible "Home Run" Trade Idea

  Back on December 27th, 2021, I sent out the following video in an email to VIP Members inside Market Chess Subscription Services. In the VIP service, we focus on long-term investing plays and strategies, as well as the occasional special situation like the one I outlined below for Treasuries.    At the time of this video, TLT was trading at...

16Jun3:11 pmEST

Filling Major Gaps Below 06/16/22 {Video}

If you enjoy my videos and blog posts, then please click here for more details about joining Market Chess Subscription Services for plenty of other features, as well. Also, be sure to check out recent, verified Testimonials about the service by clicking here Enjoy the video, and enjoy your evening. 

16Jun9:58 amEST

Reminder: Markets Will Be Closed on Monday

Markets will be closed this coming Monday for the full session as we observe a recent addition to the rare, select group of stock market holidays: Juneteenth (it falls on a Sunday this year, technically, so markets will observe it on Monday).  Now, from a market context it is important to note two things about the holiday. First, weekly options...

15Jun4:34 pmEST

Stock Market Recap 06/15/22 {Video}

The following video is a brief, condensed version of the Stock Market Recap which I present each evening to members of Market Chess Subscription Services. In the longer version, I offer tons of actionable trade ideas, educational content, and in-depth objective analysis across all markets. If you enjoy my videos and blog posts, then please...

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