Trading Ideas

17Aug3:49 pmEST

An Economic (Not Political) Parting Thought on Student Loans

The Education Department just cancelled about $4 billion in student loans , which applies to about 208,000 borrowers for students who attended the now-defunct ITT Technical Institute.  Now, I am not interested in getting into a political debate over the merits and cons of student loan forgiveness.  However, from an economic standpoint where,...

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17Aug11:16 amEST

Summer 2022: When Looming Risks Were Miscalculated

It is my deep conviction that we will look back on this summer as one where the market was burying its collective head in the sand at the imminent and and longer-term risks facing the world economy. First and foremost the imminent Fed dovish pivot is nonsense. As soft as Powell has been the past the CPI is still historically high and not...

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16Aug5:26 pmEST

Stock Market Recap 08/16/22 {Video}

The following video is a brief, condensed version of the Stock Market Recap which I present each evening to members of Market Chess Subscription Services. In the longer version, I offer tons of actionable trade ideas, educational content, and in-depth objective analysis across all markets. If you enjoy my videos and blog posts, then please...

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16Aug10:56 amEST

Inflation Grim Reaper is Coming For You

Look, I get it.  Perhaps just as much as anyone else I miss the days where we could head to the gas pump and get a full tank of gas and chuckling about how reasonable the final price was. And then head on over to the grocery store--even a high end one like Whole Foods--to pick up some meat and fish, and other goodies, also at a reasonable price...

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15Aug10:48 amEST

Shake, Rattle, But Hasn't Rolled

I lost track trying to keep count of how many nasty shakeouts we have seen in the energy complex this summer. The current one this morning is in regards to China slowdown fears coupled with an Iran supply boost. However, neither of those news items are anything new as the market has known about them for quite some time. Interestingly, these...

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14Aug10:32 amEST

Weekend Overview and Analysis 08/14/22 {Video}

The following video is a brief, condensed version of the full-length Weekend Video Strategy Session which I present each weekend to members of Market Chess Subscription Services. In the longer version, I offer tons of actionable trade ideas, educational content, and in-depth objective analysis across all markets.  Please click here  for more...

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11Aug11:07 amEST

Sneaky Peak Inflation

This sure is a strange version of "peak inflation," with rates yawning off the cool(er than expected) CPI yesterday and then outright spiking (as TLT sells off, below on the daily chart) today on the cool PPI print.  My view headed into 2022, as per a video I emailed to VIP Members over the holiday (and have since posted on this website a few...

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10Aug10:57 amEST

Getting High on the CPI

A slightly cooler CPI, but still a whopping 8.5%, is seeing Wall Street fervently cheer via higher stock prices this morning. In fact, the S&P 500 Index is lingering just below the widely-watched 4200 level, clearly a spot worth watching the rest of summer as we close in on a declining 200-day simple moving average on that index and virtually...

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09Aug3:41 pmEST

It All Comes Down to the American Consumer

With about a $100 billion more in market cap than competitor Mastercard (and a few hundred billion more than American Express), Visa (V, on the updated quarterly chart, below) is still squarely on my radar to flag a major inflection point and, indeed, regime change for the vaunted American consumer.  As you know, America's economy still...

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09Aug11:25 amEST

A Certain Beauty in Those Peaks

Perhaps the most striking feature of the summer rally in growth stocks alongside the selloff in oil and gas has been how cheered on the growth rally is which was actually exceeded in enthusiasm by how jeered the gasoline prices, oil price, and energy stocks were on the way down.  In other words, most market players absolutely adored the growth...

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08Aug10:46 amEST

This Silly Summer Chase is a Serious Warning

The chase into meme stocks and other short squeeze plays, such as AMC BBBY FUBO GME PTON, among others, may very well be a fun summer reminder of the retail squeeze bonanza back in early-2021 where GME and AMC went ballistic to the upside for a few weeks.  However, it ought to serve as a stark warning to Fed officials (and Congress) that...

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07Aug10:01 amEST

Weekend Overview and Analysis 08/07/22 {Video}

The following video is a brief, condensed version of the full-length Weekend Video Strategy Session which I present each weekend to members of Market Chess Subscription Services. In the longer version, I offer tons of actionable trade ideas, educational content, and in-depth objective analysis across all markets.  Please click here  for more...

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05Aug10:15 amEST

Take Everything You Know About Markets and Flip It

I am quite certain that there is a significant portion of traders out there who likely began trading sometime last decade, or at least became more attentive to markets during that period.  If that is the case then surely they have, understandably, grown accustomed to a market where bad news is often seen as good news; where slow growth was...

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04Aug4:31 pmEST

Stock Market Recap 08/04/22 {Video}

The following video is a brief, condensed version of the Stock Market Recap which I present each evening to members of Market Chess Subscription Services. In the longer version, I offer tons of actionable trade ideas, educational content, and in-depth objective analysis across all markets. If you enjoy my videos and blog posts, then please...

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04Aug10:42 amEST

Money Where Mouth Is: I Went Short Apple

Leading up to the epic, historical 2008 crash and all of its accompanying volatility which occurred after Labor Day of that year, it is easy to forget that none other than Warren Buffett had spent much of the year, and that summer before everything hit the fan, building a sizable position in the rail Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corp (he would...

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03Aug2:51 pmEST

The Big Level Everyone is Watching 08/03/22 {Video}

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03Aug11:28 amEST

Feeding the Summertime Ducks

Led by some good news out of ALNY, the biotech sector is clearly out in front of today's market snapback rally off yesterday's poor close.  On the XBI sector ETF daily chart, below, we can see the potential for a base breakout higher. Some names we have been tracking with Members which look good are: CRSP IONS SNDX. However, and this is...

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02Aug10:20 amEST

Maybe They Should Take American Express...

If you are old enough, like I am, to remember those Visa commercial from decades ago where they would truly lean into how many businesses did not accept American Express, it may be just enough nostalgia to push back against the idea that the major credit card stocks, V and MA especially, could have already topped out on a multi-year basis.  But...

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01Aug10:42 amEST

You Come to Market Chess to Get Away from Petty Drama

We are clearly at a crossroads with this market.  Early-August seasonality is actually a bit better than most expect. However, as the month rolls on the mood tends to shift to a more volatile one as autumn lingers. Thus, even with this morning's softness bulls may have a week or two to make their case (as quite a few seem to be making) that a...

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31Jul10:35 amEST

Weekend Overview and Analysis 07/31/22 {Video}

The following video is a brief, condensed version of the full-length Weekend Video Strategy Session which I present each weekend to members of Market Chess Subscription Services. In the longer version, I offer tons of actionable trade ideas, educational content, and in-depth objective analysis across all markets.  Please click here  for more...

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