Trading Ideas
Showing articles 1 - 20 (5482 total)
03Feb1:35 pmEST
Don't Forget About the Real Inflation Gauge
The period immediately after the Super Bowl, which begins this Sunday evening, is assuredly the dead period of winter, where the holidays and the freshness of the winter season from late-last year are a distant memory, but the anticipation of spring is still too far away to truly get excited. Thus, one can be forgiven for not thinking much...
30Jan1:04 pmEST
Catalysts Versus Excuses
When you see a high, tight bull flag, especially on a long-term timeframe like the GLD ETF (for gold metal) monthly chart, first below, uncoil higher with aggression it is almost assuredly a sign of extreme bullishness given the urgency of buyers to pounce on any and all long-term pauses. We have been highlighting this flag for a while now,...
29Jan10:47 amEST
Cutting? Seriously, Cutting?
At the risk of launching a Jim Mora rant , I will simply flag the DBA ETF (for a basket of soft commodities) weekly chart, second below, challenging ten-year highs from December 2024 here as softs stage a resurgence in early-2025. The first graph, below, shows the top-weighted components of DBA--Ask yourself how significant each one of these...
23Jan3:27 pmEST
Don't Underestimate Japan
Lost in the shuffle of NFLX earnings and Trump's first few days in office for his second terms with endless headlines and sound bites is the Bank of Japan meeting this evening. Markets are actually almost fully pricing in a rate hike, the likes of which we have not seen since last summer when we saw a violent but ephemeral spike in the VIX as...
22Jan12:40 pmEST
This is Not the Golden Age of Flying
While Netflix's earnings surge understandably steals the show today, adding fuel to the Nasdaq, we have a glaring sell-the-news reaction to the quietly hot airline space taking place in United, after its own earnings last evening. On the updated UAL daily chart, below, we can see the sharp green-to-red move, currently sporting a sizable red...
21Jan12:29 pmEST
Hedonistic Nihilism
Hedonism is the belief that pleasure is the most important thing in life, while nihilism is the belief that life has no meaning or value. A combination of the two is called hedonistic nihilism. Given the shenanigans of the meme coins ($TRUMP and $MELANIA coins, for example, not to mention the estimable $FART coin) over the long weekend now,...
16Jan3:51 pmEST
Satanic Black Magic Natural Gas
Natural gas bulls should knock on every piece of wood they see for the foreseeable future, as the commodity and its related equities stage impressive rallies which still seem to be overlooked by most. I view these rallies as "lockouts," which I will discuss in more depth for Members this evening in my usual full video for them. For now, after...
15Jan2:11 pmEST
It's Pretty; It's So Pretty
The market is clearly focusing more on CPI coming in cooler than expectations this morning, conveniently ignoring the year over year increase in inflation over the last four months. Or is it? While equities are surging, and the bond market is enjoying some relief as rates come down, gold, for example, is sporting an explosive-looking monthly...
14Jan12:49 pmEST
The Danger is No Joke
A cooler PPI print this morning initially ignited a rally in stocks. However, as I write this the rally faded to red, with tech giving up the ghost within the first hour or so of trading. Monsters like META and NVDA are notable laggards. Further, as we noted with Members in the Morning Prep Video, bonds never really got behind the idea that...
13Jan2:24 pmEST
An Undisputed Consensus Emerges
Without question, among bond market experts and general market pundits, there is a clear and unequivocal consensus brewing that if rates on the 10-Year Note touch near 5% again, as they did back around Halloween 2023, then it will mark a definitive top in rates just like it did back then. Naturally, I take the other side of that view, as I...
10Jan11:27 amEST
Live By the MAGS, Die By the MAGS
After forming a series of lower highs since mid-December, the Magnificent 7 ETF, first chart below on the daily timeframe, is breaching well-defined support this morning. The second chart, below, for reference is of the S&P 500 Index daily and also shows a support breakdown so far today, indicative of a head and shoulders bearish top...
08Jan1:19 pmEST
The Last Hurrah
The November through mid-December surge in retail stocks, seen below on the XRT sector ETF daily chart, certainly took me by surprise. As you can see, however, that rally has now been mostly erased. Further, long-term retail laggards like DG DLTR FL KSS NKE, among many others in the sector, continue to flounder. Overall, the XRT head and...
07Jan1:19 pmEST
Beating You to the Punch
With 2025 underway it is a good idea to look at post-election year seasonality. Courtesy of @AlmanacTrader on X, below, we can see the 1949-2023 data set for all post-election year patterns in the S&P 500 Index. Clearly, the black and red lines are most relevant, with the incumbent party losing. As you can see February is a uniquely weak...
06Jan12:20 pmEST
I am a Nuclear Landman
Natural gas and nuclear are red-hot not just today but also of late, overall. We have been focused on these two groups, both the commodity and underlying stocks, with Members. And now we have the nuclear reactor plays flashing strong signs of staging fresh legs higher, be it GEV NNE OKLO SMR, just to name a few. Meanwhile, natural gas is...
02Jan1:13 pmEST
Pick a Side, Any Side
If the first trading session of 2025, so far, is any indication of what is to come this year we are in for a doozy of a tape. As of this early-afternoon, we have seen a plethora of whipsaws, squeezes, fades, before the market finally sold off aggressively during the New York lunch hour. Granted, we are still technically within the "Santa Rally"...